Owners Protest CHRBs Regulatory Inaction on Masochistic Race
If you werent outraged at the stunning form reversal by a 4-year-old California-bred gelding named Masochistic in a Kentucky Derby undercard race at Churchill Downs, then its likely you either cashed a nice bet on the horse when he breezed home by 14 lengths or you think deception of the wagering public is part of the games charm and allure.
Horse owners David Frankham and Brian Carmody are outraged that the California Horse Racing Board has taken no action on a case where Masochistic, in his only previous start, finished fifth under a hammerlock ride against California-bred maidens March 15 at Santa Anita Park, after which he tested positive for the tranquilizer, Acepromazine, at nearly 40 times the allowable limit.
Frankham and Carmody have issued the following statement concerning the first race at Del Mar on Thursday in which their horse is entered to compete against Masochistic, saying they will not run as a protest over the CHRBs inaction.
Is anyone else outraged enough to take a similar stand?
We are the owners of Smogcutter, a 3-year-old colt entered to run in the first race at Del Mar on Thursday, July 31.
When the entries were released yesterday, we saw that one of the horses in the field is Masochistic.
Many will remember Masochistics race at Santa Anita on March 15. It was clear to most that day that the horse was held back by jockey Omar Berrio and not ridden to the best of his abilities. It was obvious enough to demand an inquiry by the stewards. Then, weeks later, the California Horse Racing Board revealed that Masochistic had tested positive for the tranquilizer Acepromazine in the March 15 race.
It was hard not to be disgusted by this, and see it as a blatant defrauding of the bettors. No one was reimbursed for betting on the sedated Masochistic.
Subsequently, this Cal Bred maiden shipped to Churchill Downs to run on Kentucky Derby Day and won by 14 lengths. A strange move considering the winners share for this race was roughly $30,000, compared to $33,000 (plus a $17,500 Cal-bred bonus) for a maiden race at home in California. I find it hard to ignore the fixing of odds while pulling off a huge betting coup at the publics expense, on a day when pari-mutuel pools are large enough to mask substantial wagers.
It is unconscionable that a violation this egregious is left unresolved 4 1/2 months later, while the trainer A. C. Avila is allowed to continue training without any ruling by the CHRB.
As owners we believe wholeheartedly that we have an obligation of fairness to the betting public. If the governing bodies do not enforce and uphold that obligation and that trust, then we will rightfully continue to lose the betting public and owners alike.
Consequently, we have instructed our trainer not to walk over Smogcutter for the race on July 31, in protest. We wont stand with A.C. Avila in the paddock and we hope that other owners in this race will review these incidents as well and consider what type of racing they want to support.
Hey Mr. Q...Enjoyed watching your boy today...(2 Wins} ...Let me know if he ever decides to come my way!!!! Less than 3 months...hoping for a few BC mounts
In the past two years, there have been an amazing 250 races run on the turf at Saratoga. 120 of them were run on the wider, Mellon turf course, named after one of horse racing's finest patrons of the turf, Paul Mellon of Rokeby Stable fame. 130 of them were run on the inner turf course, which doesn't have a title name but might be the scene of many results where you are called it some colorful names.
About 20 years ago, I did a study of the two turf courses and found radical differences. Twenty years later, little has changed.
On the Mellon turf course, an amazing 47 favorites have won the 120 races for a healthy win percentage of 39.16 percent. The average win mutuel odds was only $5.43 to 1 so the average win mutuel payoff for the 120 races run on the Mellon turf course was $12.86.
Part of the Mellon turf course playing so much to form is its wide turns allow horses to overcome poor trips and rally with less traffic congestion. The inner turf course, with its narrower configuration, figures to be the opposite and according to the data, it is.
There have been 130 races run on the inner turf course and only 35 favorites have won for a win percentage of only 26.92 percent. When you do pick a winner on the inner turf course, you are rewarded with an average mutuel payoff of $14.34.
Field sizes are comparable but you would not think that the inner turf course averages 9.22 starters per race while the Mellon turf course averages 8.71 starters per race
Reds have found an offense of late...Considering Leak's dominance of the Fish and Miami's dismal offense of late ..(less than 3 RPG and a .204 BA last 7) one has to consider laying the .30 or so....
Worth noting Cinci has won 6 of 9..all 6 wins covered the RL..Granted the possibility of a home team losing 3 outs should always be a consideration but
LEAKE is 3-0 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 1.93 and a WHIP of 1.393.
Close Hatches and Princess of Sylmar top Personal Ensign
Close Hatches will face Princess of Sylmar and five other challengers when she attempts to extend her winning streak to four on Friday in the Grade 1, $500,000 Personal Ensign Invitational at Saratoga Race Course.
The 1 1/8-mile Personal Ensign for fillies and mares is a Breeders' Cup Challenge "Win and You're In" race in the Distaff division. It will be shown live on MSG+ as part of the network's "Friday Live at Saratoga" series. The race attracted seven entrants, all graded stakes winners. Three have won at the Grade 1 level.
Close Hatches, trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, posted her first Grade 1 victory in June 2013 when she romped by 7 ¼ lengths in the Grade 1 Mother Goose at Belmont Park and three months later took the Grade 1 Cotillion by two lengths at Parx Racing. She was second in her sophomore finale, finishing 4 ¼ lengths behind Beholder, later named Champion Three-Year-Old filly, in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Distaff in November at Santa Anita.
A Juddmonte Farms homebred, Close Hatches began her 4-year-old season by posting a pair of 1 ¼-length victories in gate-to-wire fashion at Oaklawn Park in the Grade 2 Azeri in March and Grade 1 Apple Blossom Handicap in April.
She had a tougher assignment in the Grade 1, 1 1/16-mile Ogden Phipps on July 7 at Belmont, drawing post 1 against a field that included Beholder and four-time Grade 1 winner Princess of Sylmar. Deftly handed by Joel Rosario, Close Hatches rated six lengths behind the early leader in third, got off the rail with 4 ½ furlongs to travel, claimed the lead before the five-sixteenths pole, and fended off multiple challenges in the stretch to prevail by a head over a hard-charging Princess of Sylmar.
Antipathy finished a neck behind the winner in third, and she hit the wire just three-quarters of a length in front of fourth-place finisher Beholder.
Considering Close Hatches has won all three times she has had more than 60 days between starts, Mott decided to train the daughter of First Defence up to the Personal Ensign following the Phipps.
"She's always run pretty good off the bench," said Mott. "Her works have been good, and I think we've got enough in her. She's always run very well when she's had time between races."
Mott realizes Close Hatches will have a limited margin for error in the Personal Ensign, which drew four of the top five finishers from the Phipps.
"I'm sure it will be a very competitive group of horses," said Mott. "They were all pretty well bunched up in the Phipps. She came out the winner, but it was a close finish."
Joel Rosario has the return call on Close Hatches, the 8-5 morning-line favorite who drew post position 6.
Belle Gallantey, beaten 1 ¾ lengths when fifth in the Phipps, returned in the Grade 1, 1 ¼-mile Delaware Handicap on July 12 and defeated Princess of Sylmar by 2 ¾ lengths. Princess of Sylmar was bet down to 1-5, but Belle Gallantey led from start to finish.
Princess of Sylmar, owned by Ed Stanco, is unbeaten in two starts at Saratoga, having won last year's Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks and Grade 1 Alabama. She added a victory in the Grade 1 Beldame Invitational in September at Belmont before finishing sixth in the Breeders' Cup Distaff. Prior to the Phipps, she won the Cat Cay, her 4-year-old debut, in April at Aqueduct.
"She just missed in the Phipps," trainer Todd Pletcher said of Princess of Sylmar. "She ran a big race [in the Phipps] and didn't get a proper set-up in the Delaware Handicap and maybe didn't run her 'A' race, but she has been training exceptionally well and we believe she is sitting on a good effort."
Javier Castellano will ride Princess of Sylmar, the 9-5 morning-line second choice, from post 7.
Belle Gallantey, a 5-year-old, has vastly improved since being claimed for $35,000 at Aqueduct by trainer Rudy Rodriguez on behalf of an ownership group headed by Michael Dubb. She rattled off entry-level allowance and starter allowance wins on the inner track before taking an optional claimer by 3 ½ lengths in May at Belmont Park. After rallying from fifth in the Phipps, she made all the pace in the Delaware Handicap.
"We wanted to run her in a [second-level allowance], but they didn't use the race, and we didn't have any other place to run her," Rodriguez of the decision to run Belle Gallantey in the Phipps. "She got in a little trouble that day; the trip she had wasn't the best she could have had. But she did good and got beat [1 ¾ lengths] for everything against the best horses in the country. She likes to go long, and that's probably the key for her.
"They hustled us to go in [the Delaware Handicap], and we took a chance," the trainer continued. "I told the stakes coordinator to call Mr. Dubb. He called him, and Mike [Dubb] called me 10, 20 minutes later and told me to put her in. She liked the track and everything worked out perfectly. You have to be in the right place at the right time."
Although Belle Gallantey had been running in sprints before she was claimed, Rodriguez said he and the owners thought she had tremendous potential around two turns.
"That's why we claimed her during the winter," the trainer explained. "We know she can go long, and during the winter not too many horses can go two turns."
Belle Gallantey, 8-1, will leave from post 5 with Jose Ortiz in the irons.
Antipathy, third in the Phipps at 30-1, returned to win the Grade 3 Shuvee Handicap by two lengths in the mud on July 27 at Saratoga over Stanwyck, who also was entered in the Personal Ensign. The Shuvee was contested at the Personal Ensign's 1 1/8-mile distance.
"We need some racing luck and for her to run her 'A' race [to win the Personal Ensign]," said Kiaran McLaughlin, who conditions the 4-year-old Godolphin Racing homebred. "It's a tough group, but we're happy to be in there, and we'll see how it goes. Hopefully, we'll have a good day. I think she [belongs among the best in the division]. She missed by only a half-length in the Phipps and came back and won."
Irad Ortiz, Jr. will ride Antipathy, the 5-1 third choice on the morning line, from post 1.
Coming in from California is Fiftyshadesofhay, who won the Grade 2 Ruffian in May at Belmont. She subsequently has finished third in the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis in June at Churchill Downs and fourth in the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch on August 2 over Del Mar's Polytrack.
Completing the field are Stanwyck, who won the Grade 3 Turnback the Alarm Handicap in October at Belmont, and Majestic River, who captured the Grade 2 Molly Pitcher on July 27 at Monmouth Park in her most recent start.
Tough to back the weak traveling Indians (24-37) esp when having problems offensively ..2.8 RPG last 10...
While their pitching has been exceptional Bauer's road woes 1-5 with a 5+ ERA doesn't bode well facing a Minny offense putting up 4.5 RPG last 10 versus the likes of Oakland and K.C.
8/19/2014 8:10 PM MLB Baseball 968 Minnesota Twins* -102 vs Cleveland Indians
T Bauer - R Listed K Gibson - R Listed
Update: Pool Manipulation? Suspicious Betting Spotted in Thistledown Race
Was Sundays fifth race at Thistledown racetrack in Ohio a textbook case of how to beat the bookie? Thats what one Paulick Report reader thinks, and the evidence is pretty compelling.
Missjeanlouise was odds-on favorite in the six-horse field of $20,000 filly and mare claimers (also open to non-winners of a race in 2014), until the final cycle of wagers was flashed on the tote board midway through the six-furlong race. Missjeanlouise went from 1-2 favorite to 3-1 as the horses approached the far turn. Every other starter in the race took significant action, putting each one of them at odds of between 3-1 to about 5-1. For example, Dusty Lily, the longest shot on the board, dropped from 35-1 to 9-2 in the last flash.
Missjeanlouise won comfortably by 2 1/4 lengths, giving owner Midwest Thoroughbreds and trainer Roger Brueggemann the second of their three winners on the day. Finishing second was Vilao, who went off at 9-2 after being 13-1 before the final odds change, according to a report from the Ohio State Racing Commission.
Missjeanlouise paid a healthy $8.20 to win as the second choice but only $2.10 to place and $2.10 to show, suggesting she was the heavy favorite in the place and show pools. The $2 exacta paid $17.60. View the chart here.
The win-place-show pool in Missjeanlouises race was substantially larger than any other race of the day. A total of $45,855 was wagered in those pools. The next-highest WPS pool of the day was $21,887 in the sixth race, which had eight starters compared to the sixth races six starters.
The average WPS pool of the days seven other races was $14,049, so the fifth race WPS pool was three times larger than the average for the day (excluding race five).
The fifth was not a particularly attractive betting contest in other pools. The $12,536 wagered on exactas was the fourth largest exacta pool of the eight races on Sunday.
So why would someone bet thousands of dollars on other horses in a race, including longshots, to improve the odds on the most probable winner?
Thats simple. Manipulating the odds on the winning horse allows a gambler to receive a bigger payoff betting through a bookmaker or offshore sports/betting book, where the money does not go into the pari-mutuel pools.
It turns out, according to William Crawford, executive director of the Ohio State Racing Commission, that someone put $20,000 on the race ($4,000 on each of the other five starters) betting through an advance deposit wagering service affiliated with the North Dakota-licensed Lien Games.
(Editors Note: The original version of this article incorrectly identified the source of wagers as coming through the Greyhound Channel advance deposit wagering service. The bets were made via an ADW affiliated with North Dakota-licensed Lien Games. Greyhound Channel and Lien Games are not affiliated with each other in any way.)
If the people involved in the odds manipulation made a $10,000 bet with bookmakers on Missjeanlouis, it would return $41,000 at track odds. In that scenario, it would mean an $11,000 profit from the amount wagered ($20,000 through the pools on the five non-winners and $10,000 on the winner through bookmakers). Its possible more than $10,000 would have been bet through various bookmakers and offshore operations so the profit could have been considerably more than $11,000.
If $30,000 had been bet to win on Missjeanlouise through the pari-mutuel pools, the profit would have been five cents on the dollar, or a total of $1,500.
Please note that I am not in any way linking the connections of Missjeanlouise with this possible pool manipulation and beat the bookie scheme. Their horse just happened to be an obvious winner in a short field where the odds could be easily manipulated.
Whats next? Will the Ohio State Racing Commission and/or the Thoroughbred Racing Protective Bureau demand more information from Lien Games on who made the $20,000 in losing wagers? Well keep you posted as we learn more.
UPDATE: The North Dakota Racing Commission, which has jurisdiction over Lien Games, issued the following statement on Tuesday afternoon:
The North Dakota Racing Commission recently became aware of betting through one of our licensed ADWs which may be an attempt at odds manipulation on races at Thistledown racetrack. The Commission immediately reached out to both the TRPB and the Ohio State Racing Commission to begin collaborative efforts in resolving this issue.
It is the highest priority of the North Dakota Racing Commission to ensure the integrity of our licensed ADWs. To that end we have established key relationships with prominent industry members such as the TRPB to support these ongoing efforts. The Commission hopes to use this unfortunate incident as an opportunity to work with the TRPB and others within the industry not just to resolve this single issue, but to begin an effort aimed at developing methods to prevent any possible odds manipulation in the future.
Tough to back the weak traveling Indians (24-37) esp when having problems offensively ..2.8 RPG last 10...
While their pitching has been exceptional Bauer's road woes 1-5 with a 5+ ERA doesn't bode well facing a Minny offense putting up 4.5 RPG last 10 versus the likes of Oakland and K.C.
8/19/2014 8:10 PM MLB Baseball 968 Minnesota Twins* -102 vs Cleveland Indians
T Bauer - R Listed K Gibson - R Listed
I bet u felt pretty good after duh first inning...LOL....oh well better like next time
St. George Farm Racings Ann of the Dance, overlooked in the wagering at 28-1 despite the presence in the saddle of hot shot apprentice Drayden Van Dyke, got up in the final strides to nose out 11-1 Scarlet Strike in the featured $95,600 CTT & TOC Handicap Friday at Del Mar.
Ann of the Dance, whose racing career had been confined to the East coast until she ran in Del Mars Osunitas Stakes a month ago, finishing eighth, obviously relished the marathon mile and three-eighths over the infield Jimmy Durante Turf Course.
Ninth and last in the early stages of the race, Ann of the Dance rallied into contention in the stretch and closed stoutly along the rail for the narrow win. Customer Base, the 8-5 favorite, was third a half-length behind Scarlet Strike and the same margin in front of fourth-place Charlie Em who led into the stretch.
Ann of the Dance, a five-year-old daughter of English Channel trained by Phil Oliver, negotiated the route in 2:14.73 and returned $59.20, $21 and $6.40 while earning $56,760 with her fourth victory in 26 starts. Her career bankroll is $196,721.
Scarlet Strike, who was piloted by Joe Talamo, paid $11.20 and $5.20 while Customer Base returned $2.80 to show. Topic was withdrawn from the original field.
Ann of the Dance provided Oliver with his second surprise stakes success at Del Mar, the conditioner having won the 2013 Osunitas Stakes with St. George Farm Racings Closing Range who paid $35.40 to win. And, last Saturday, Olivers wife, Victoria, sent out Personal Diary for a $20.20 upset in the Grade I Del Mar Oaks for the partnership of St. George Farm and G. Watts Humphrey, Jr.
With only a single favorite winning in Fridays Pick Six sequence, there were no perfect tickets and Saturdays program will feature a carryover of $106,668. Post time for the first of ten races will be 2 p.m., with the Pick Six presented on races five through ten
Seattle leads MLB +12 Units vs LHP...even more impressive when considering they are only +5.4 for the season
Felix going for the Mariners today
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While Minny hasn't fared well vs LHP (19-26) their RPG (4.7)is above season average. Topped only by their 4.9 within their division.
In limited action 19 IP Trevor May has allowed 30 hits and 14 walks
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As poorly as Texas has played they lead MLB with 5.1 RPG vs LHP...
59-69 o/u overall yet 25-17 o/u LHP
If Rangers are to break out offensively, Vargas could be a prime candidate allowing 101 hits in 86 IP at home
Indians winning 7 of 11 is even more impressive when considering they faced, Price, Scherzer, Weaver, Sale, Quintana, Shields and (?) Verlander during that stretch... Runs should not be a problem versus a highly pedestrian May...I'll forfeit 3 outs and side with a home team run line..
Also giving consideration to the o8.5
918 Cleveland Indians -1½ +123* vs Minnesota Twins (T May - R must Start T Bauer - R must Start)
In Las Vegas, betting has already begun on the 2015 Kentucky Derby
LAS VEGASShortly before 9:00 a.m. on Monday, with the temperature outside slowly climbing toward its customary spot among the triple digits, and with weary football fans making the trek from the Strip to McCarron Airport, professional and amateur horse bettors formed a line at the Wynn race & sports book for the chance to bet on the 2015 Kentucky Derby.
We had people here at the book waiting to wager before we even opened up, said Johnny Avello, the Wynn's executive director of race and sports.
The casino's release on Monday of odds on 250 horsesup from 150 in 2013marked the 23rd time in as many years that Avello and his team at the Wynn offered the option to wager on the most popular and highly anticipated horse race of the year eight months before post time, with bets capped at a maximum win of $20,000.
As of Monday afternoon, 55 wagers had already been placed, according to Avello.
One of those wagers, the first to be made on Monday, was in support of Competitive Edge, the winner of the Hopeful at Saratoga on Sept. 1, who was steadily bet down to 30-1 after opening at 60-1.
The Bob Baffert-trained American Pharaoh, winner of the Del Mar Futurity on Sept. 3, also got a lot of action. The colt began the day as the 2015 Derby favorite at an opening price of 40-1, and was ultimately bet down to 25-1.
Other horses who received support at the betting windows include El Kabeir, winner of a seven-furlong maiden race at Saratoga on Aug. 30 (bet down from 65-1 to 45-1), Carpe Diem, a $1.6 million colt who won his debut at Saratoga on Sept. 1 (100-1 to 65-1), Conquest Panthera, who won at Del Mar in his first time out on Aug. 24 (175-1 to 100-1) and Daredevil, who debuted with a victory at Belmont on Sept. 13 (85-1 to 60-1).
Curiously, two of the 12 horses who began the day with odds lower than 100-1, Cozmic One and Jesss Dream, failed to attract any action early interest. Cozmic One, the first foal of 2009 Breeders Cup Classic winner Zenyatta, opened at 60-1 after recently taking part in his first published workout.
Why bet so early? Well, California Chrome, the winner of the 2014 Derby, paid just $7 on a $2 win bet on race day. But on Sept. 1, 2013, the Wynn had him at 200-1. The first Kentucky Derby futures pool will have the greatest odds simply because it is still such a crap shoot this far out, says Marco DAngelo, a professional horse and sports bettor who owns the website WagerTalk.com. Only 20 of these horses will get the chance to race in the Derby. As a horse owner, I know there are too many things that can derail a horses road to the Derbyinjuries, sickness, being a late developer. So many things have to go right to win a race like this and thats assuming the horse already possesses the talent to get the job done.
Great horses returning off a layoff at short odds are a recipe for pari-mutuel ruin. If they win, you barely win. If they lose, you lose. Not much reward for the risk. California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit) fits that bill this Saturday in the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby (G2) going nine furlongs at Parx Racing.
The winner of four straight graded stakes, including three Grade 1s and the first two legs of the Triple Crown, California Chrome was given a brief rest after the Belmont Stakes before returning to the workout tab at the start of August and looks like he has progressed in his training to be ready to go on Saturday.
Luckily, he does not carry a lot of weight so as long as he is sound -- and it looks like he is with his workouts on schedule each week -- he won't take too long to be fit and ready. And, he will have to be as the $1 million purse and nine-furlong distance has attracted a decent field.
For betting purposes, anything less than even-money is unacceptable. He is the most logical winner of the race by far but what usually happens in these kinds of races is that the next most logical contenders tend to get overbet as well.
Bayern (Offlee Wild) is back off his Travers (G1) debacle where we will never know if he could get 10 furlongs after being strangled early and out of the race before a mile was run. If the Bayern who won the Haskell (G1) going nine furlongs shows up, it should be a real horse race with California Chrome.
The problem is that I don't think he will be close to the 7-2 morning-line so we have the chance of having not one, but two overbet horses.
If both of the most logical winners are overbet, it's time to take a serious look at the less logical winners. Weighing the chance of winning and pari-mutuel return, I give Protonico (Giant's Causeway) a serious shot at a price even though he is trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Javier Castellano.
What Protonico has going for him is a win over the track in the Smarty Jones (G3), a pedigree that should see him get better with time and he still has an upside with only five career starts.
The dark bay made his 2014 debut a winning one off a seven-month layoff at Belmont where he beat first-level optional claiming foes going a mile. He came back a month later for his two-turn debut at Saratoga going nine furlongs in the Curlin Stakes where he was part of a three-way photo behind subsequent Travers winner V. E. Day (English Channel).
Not quite ready for the 10-furlong Travers, Pletcher set his sights on the lucrative Pennsylvania Derby for Protonico and used the Smarty Jones to get a race over the track. Farther back in the pack than normal, the colt raced between horses in the second tier behind a strong pace. At the top of the stretch, he looked hopelessly beat but Joe Bravo found room and split horses to make an improbable late run to get up at the wire.
Protonico earned a career-best BRIS Speed rating of 97, which doesn't put him in the mix here unless he can improve off that effort and go forward again. By Giant's Causeway, the Kentucky-bred is the first foal to race out of Alpha Spirit (A.P. Indy), who is herself a daughter of a Delaware H. (G2) winner.
Offspring of Giant's Causeway get better with age and this one looks to be no exception. Another reason I think that Protonico still has an upside is that he missed the entire Triple Crown campaign. He started getting cranked up at Payson Park in December but went to the sidelines until he showed up on the Oklahoma training track at Saratoga in May.
Unlike the other Pletcher three-year-olds who are usually toast this time of year from racing on the concrete at Gulfstream Park, Protonico has been a fresh horse in the second half of the year and he could make some noise, at a price, in Saturday's Pennsylvania Derby.
In the race before the Derby, the $1 million Cotillion (G1) will be run for three-year-old fillies going 1 1/16 miles on the main track and it has attracted a stellar field.
Untapable (Tapit) is the 7-5 favorite despite finishing up the track against males in the Haskell. She had dominated her division prior to that with monster wins in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and Mother Goose (G1). The daughter of Tapit has the typical series of easy breezes for trainer Steve Asmussen and gets Rosie Napravnik back aboard.
When Asmussen sent Untapable to the Haskell, it opened the door for the other sophomore fillies at Saratoga and Stopchargingmaria (Tale of the Cat) took advantage of her absence better than anyone. She won the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) by five lengths going nine furlongs then came back and captured the Alabama (G1) by three parts of a length going 10 furlongs.
Looming behind the top two is three-time Grade 1 winner Sweet Reason (Street Sense). She won the one-mile Acorn (G1), so another sixteenth of a mile should not be a big deal but the only win she has going two turns is against allowance foes on the inner dirt track.
Still, the bay miss comes in here in great form and her late kick is devastating. Can she unleash it going two turns is the big question. So far, the record shows that Sweet Reason is a long sprinter. With experience and maturity, can she be a middle distance filly going two turns? We'll see on Saturday in a race with Breeders' Cup implications for two races.
Would love to see the Vol's regain prominence of years past unfortunately the Kiffin debacle will linger yet another year..Lack of a passing game coupled with Georgia's SUPERIOR running attack leads me to lay the lumber here....Will also have a look at FH...
College Football 178 Georgia -17 -107* vs Tennessee U
O'Neill barred from entering horses in Breeders' Cup
Trainer Doug ONeill, recently suspended by the New York State Gaming Commission for a medication violation and facing potential additional sanctions from the California Horse Racing Board, will be prohibited from pre-entering horses in the Breeders Cup, the Breeders Cup announced Friday.
In a statement released by the Breeders Cup, Craig Fravel, the president and chief executive of the Breeders Cup, said the move against ONeill was due to the recent administrative action by the New York State Gaming Commission, with Fravel citing a Breeders Cup rule, adopted in 2010 and amended in 2012, that bars trainers who have been found to have Class 1 or Class 2 medication violations in the preceding 12 months.
ONeill this week was suspended 45 days and fined $10,000 by New York authorities for the finding of the drug Oxazepam, a sedative with muscle-relaxing properties, in the post-race sample of Wind of Bosphorus, who won a $35,000 claiming race at Belmont Park on June 2, 2013.
Oxapezam is a Class 2 drug, according to the American Racing Commissioners Internationals website.
I accept the Breeders Cup decision and will not appeal, ONeill said in a telephone call. These are the two biggest days of the sport, and the last thing I want to do is be a distraction. The focus should be on these beautiful horses, and not on me.
ONeill won the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile last year with Goldencents, who was scheduled to have his final prep for this years Breeders Cup in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship on Saturday. ONeill had several other potential Breeders Cup runners, including Private Zone, who is bound for the BC Sprint after winning the Vosburgh in New York last week. ONeill, 46, is best known for winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness in 2012 with Ill Have Another.
The New York suspension for ONeill is set to begin Nov. 3 after the Breeders Cup is run at Santa Anita on Oct. 31 and Nov. 1 and last until Dec. 17, just before Santa Anitas main winter meeting begins Dec. 26.
However, ONeill said he had reached out Friday to New York authorities to see if his suspension could begin as early as Monday so he would be officially on suspension during the Breeders Cup.
I just want to get this behind me, he said.
ONeill could face additional penalties from California authorities owing to a medication violation in 2010 that was adjudicated in 2012.
On Aug. 25, 2010, at Del Mar, one of ONeills horses, Argenta, was found to have raced with a higher-than-permitted level of total carbon dioxide. For that violation, the CHRB on May 29, 2012, suspended ONeills license for 180 days but stayed 135 of those days provided ONeill did not receive another medication positive at a California track or any U.S. or international racing jurisdiction for a Class 1, 2, or 3 drug during an 18-month probationary period.
The New York violation would seem to fall within that 18-month period.
The CHRB is aware of the sanctions imposed against ONeill by the New York commission. The issue is under investigation by the CHRB.
Both at the top of Pac 12 offensively ...unfortunately for Cal they rank at the bottom defensively...After a disappointing home loss to Zona, Oregon cannot afford another..Duck's have put up big numbers versus much better defenses...No reason they shouldn't top tonight's team total
Oregon o48
Comments
If you werent outraged at the stunning form reversal by a 4-year-old California-bred gelding named Masochistic in a Kentucky Derby undercard race at Churchill Downs, then its likely you either cashed a nice bet on the horse when he breezed home by 14 lengths or you think deception of the wagering public is part of the games charm and allure.
Horse owners David Frankham and Brian Carmody are outraged that the California Horse Racing Board has taken no action on a case where Masochistic, in his only previous start, finished fifth under a hammerlock ride against California-bred maidens March 15 at Santa Anita Park, after which he tested positive for the tranquilizer, Acepromazine, at nearly 40 times the allowable limit.
Frankham and Carmody have issued the following statement concerning the first race at Del Mar on Thursday in which their horse is entered to compete against Masochistic, saying they will not run as a protest over the CHRBs inaction.
Is anyone else outraged enough to take a similar stand?
We are the owners of Smogcutter, a 3-year-old colt entered to run in the first race at Del Mar on Thursday, July 31.
When the entries were released yesterday, we saw that one of the horses in the field is Masochistic.
Many will remember Masochistics race at Santa Anita on March 15. It was clear to most that day that the horse was held back by jockey Omar Berrio and not ridden to the best of his abilities. It was obvious enough to demand an inquiry by the stewards. Then, weeks later, the California Horse Racing Board revealed that Masochistic had tested positive for the tranquilizer Acepromazine in the March 15 race.
It was hard not to be disgusted by this, and see it as a blatant defrauding of the bettors. No one was reimbursed for betting on the sedated Masochistic.
Subsequently, this Cal Bred maiden shipped to Churchill Downs to run on Kentucky Derby Day and won by 14 lengths. A strange move considering the winners share for this race was roughly $30,000, compared to $33,000 (plus a $17,500 Cal-bred bonus) for a maiden race at home in California. I find it hard to ignore the fixing of odds while pulling off a huge betting coup at the publics expense, on a day when pari-mutuel pools are large enough to mask substantial wagers.
It is unconscionable that a violation this egregious is left unresolved 4 1/2 months later, while the trainer A. C. Avila is allowed to continue training without any ruling by the CHRB.
As owners we believe wholeheartedly that we have an obligation of fairness to the betting public. If the governing bodies do not enforce and uphold that obligation and that trust, then we will rightfully continue to lose the betting public and owners alike.
Consequently, we have instructed our trainer not to walk over Smogcutter for the race on July 31, in protest. We wont stand with A.C. Avila in the paddock and we hope that other owners in this race will review these incidents as well and consider what type of racing they want to support.
Respectfully,
David Frankham and Brian Carmody
Toss the Rays season stats..simply the best in baseball last 20...
-118 more than fair on a Tampa 9 desperate for a win
Tampa -118
Also a couple horse plays later
Thanks for the WINNER Buddy!:thumbup:
Hey Mr. Q...Enjoyed watching your boy today...(2 Wins} ...Let me know if he ever decides to come my way!!!! Less than 3 months...hoping for a few BC mounts
Great job with bases
MONMOUTH: Pick 6 -- $80,857
GULFSTREAM: Pick 6 -- $50,000
ARLINGTON: Pick 9 -- $11,852
In the past two years, there have been an amazing 250 races run on the turf at Saratoga. 120 of them were run on the wider, Mellon turf course, named after one of horse racing's finest patrons of the turf, Paul Mellon of Rokeby Stable fame. 130 of them were run on the inner turf course, which doesn't have a title name but might be the scene of many results where you are called it some colorful names.
About 20 years ago, I did a study of the two turf courses and found radical differences. Twenty years later, little has changed.
On the Mellon turf course, an amazing 47 favorites have won the 120 races for a healthy win percentage of 39.16 percent. The average win mutuel odds was only $5.43 to 1 so the average win mutuel payoff for the 120 races run on the Mellon turf course was $12.86.
Part of the Mellon turf course playing so much to form is its wide turns allow horses to overcome poor trips and rally with less traffic congestion. The inner turf course, with its narrower configuration, figures to be the opposite and according to the data, it is.
There have been 130 races run on the inner turf course and only 35 favorites have won for a win percentage of only 26.92 percent. When you do pick a winner on the inner turf course, you are rewarded with an average mutuel payoff of $14.34.
Field sizes are comparable but you would not think that the inner turf course averages 9.22 starters per race while the Mellon turf course averages 8.71 starters per race
Worth noting Cinci has won 6 of 9..all 6 wins covered the RL..Granted the possibility of a home team losing 3 outs should always be a consideration but
LEAKE is 3-0 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 1.93 and a WHIP of 1.393.
Cinci -127
SARATOGA: Pick 6 -- $88,472
GULFSTREAM: Pick 6 -- $50,000
Close Hatches will face Princess of Sylmar and five other challengers when she attempts to extend her winning streak to four on Friday in the Grade 1, $500,000 Personal Ensign Invitational at Saratoga Race Course.
The 1 1/8-mile Personal Ensign for fillies and mares is a Breeders' Cup Challenge "Win and You're In" race in the Distaff division. It will be shown live on MSG+ as part of the network's "Friday Live at Saratoga" series. The race attracted seven entrants, all graded stakes winners. Three have won at the Grade 1 level.
Close Hatches, trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, posted her first Grade 1 victory in June 2013 when she romped by 7 ¼ lengths in the Grade 1 Mother Goose at Belmont Park and three months later took the Grade 1 Cotillion by two lengths at Parx Racing. She was second in her sophomore finale, finishing 4 ¼ lengths behind Beholder, later named Champion Three-Year-Old filly, in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Distaff in November at Santa Anita.
A Juddmonte Farms homebred, Close Hatches began her 4-year-old season by posting a pair of 1 ¼-length victories in gate-to-wire fashion at Oaklawn Park in the Grade 2 Azeri in March and Grade 1 Apple Blossom Handicap in April.
She had a tougher assignment in the Grade 1, 1 1/16-mile Ogden Phipps on July 7 at Belmont, drawing post 1 against a field that included Beholder and four-time Grade 1 winner Princess of Sylmar. Deftly handed by Joel Rosario, Close Hatches rated six lengths behind the early leader in third, got off the rail with 4 ½ furlongs to travel, claimed the lead before the five-sixteenths pole, and fended off multiple challenges in the stretch to prevail by a head over a hard-charging Princess of Sylmar.
Antipathy finished a neck behind the winner in third, and she hit the wire just three-quarters of a length in front of fourth-place finisher Beholder.
Considering Close Hatches has won all three times she has had more than 60 days between starts, Mott decided to train the daughter of First Defence up to the Personal Ensign following the Phipps.
"She's always run pretty good off the bench," said Mott. "Her works have been good, and I think we've got enough in her. She's always run very well when she's had time between races."
Mott realizes Close Hatches will have a limited margin for error in the Personal Ensign, which drew four of the top five finishers from the Phipps.
"I'm sure it will be a very competitive group of horses," said Mott. "They were all pretty well bunched up in the Phipps. She came out the winner, but it was a close finish."
Joel Rosario has the return call on Close Hatches, the 8-5 morning-line favorite who drew post position 6.
Belle Gallantey, beaten 1 ¾ lengths when fifth in the Phipps, returned in the Grade 1, 1 ¼-mile Delaware Handicap on July 12 and defeated Princess of Sylmar by 2 ¾ lengths. Princess of Sylmar was bet down to 1-5, but Belle Gallantey led from start to finish.
Princess of Sylmar, owned by Ed Stanco, is unbeaten in two starts at Saratoga, having won last year's Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks and Grade 1 Alabama. She added a victory in the Grade 1 Beldame Invitational in September at Belmont before finishing sixth in the Breeders' Cup Distaff. Prior to the Phipps, she won the Cat Cay, her 4-year-old debut, in April at Aqueduct.
"She just missed in the Phipps," trainer Todd Pletcher said of Princess of Sylmar. "She ran a big race [in the Phipps] and didn't get a proper set-up in the Delaware Handicap and maybe didn't run her 'A' race, but she has been training exceptionally well and we believe she is sitting on a good effort."
Javier Castellano will ride Princess of Sylmar, the 9-5 morning-line second choice, from post 7.
Belle Gallantey, a 5-year-old, has vastly improved since being claimed for $35,000 at Aqueduct by trainer Rudy Rodriguez on behalf of an ownership group headed by Michael Dubb. She rattled off entry-level allowance and starter allowance wins on the inner track before taking an optional claimer by 3 ½ lengths in May at Belmont Park. After rallying from fifth in the Phipps, she made all the pace in the Delaware Handicap.
"We wanted to run her in a [second-level allowance], but they didn't use the race, and we didn't have any other place to run her," Rodriguez of the decision to run Belle Gallantey in the Phipps. "She got in a little trouble that day; the trip she had wasn't the best she could have had. But she did good and got beat [1 ¾ lengths] for everything against the best horses in the country. She likes to go long, and that's probably the key for her.
"They hustled us to go in [the Delaware Handicap], and we took a chance," the trainer continued. "I told the stakes coordinator to call Mr. Dubb. He called him, and Mike [Dubb] called me 10, 20 minutes later and told me to put her in. She liked the track and everything worked out perfectly. You have to be in the right place at the right time."
Although Belle Gallantey had been running in sprints before she was claimed, Rodriguez said he and the owners thought she had tremendous potential around two turns.
"That's why we claimed her during the winter," the trainer explained. "We know she can go long, and during the winter not too many horses can go two turns."
Belle Gallantey, 8-1, will leave from post 5 with Jose Ortiz in the irons.
Antipathy, third in the Phipps at 30-1, returned to win the Grade 3 Shuvee Handicap by two lengths in the mud on July 27 at Saratoga over Stanwyck, who also was entered in the Personal Ensign. The Shuvee was contested at the Personal Ensign's 1 1/8-mile distance.
"We need some racing luck and for her to run her 'A' race [to win the Personal Ensign]," said Kiaran McLaughlin, who conditions the 4-year-old Godolphin Racing homebred. "It's a tough group, but we're happy to be in there, and we'll see how it goes. Hopefully, we'll have a good day. I think she [belongs among the best in the division]. She missed by only a half-length in the Phipps and came back and won."
Irad Ortiz, Jr. will ride Antipathy, the 5-1 third choice on the morning line, from post 1.
Coming in from California is Fiftyshadesofhay, who won the Grade 2 Ruffian in May at Belmont. She subsequently has finished third in the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis in June at Churchill Downs and fourth in the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch on August 2 over Del Mar's Polytrack.
Completing the field are Stanwyck, who won the Grade 3 Turnback the Alarm Handicap in October at Belmont, and Majestic River, who captured the Grade 2 Molly Pitcher on July 27 at Monmouth Park in her most recent start.
Tough to back the weak traveling Indians (24-37) esp when having problems offensively ..2.8 RPG last 10...
While their pitching has been exceptional Bauer's road woes 1-5 with a 5+ ERA doesn't bode well facing a Minny offense putting up 4.5 RPG last 10 versus the likes of Oakland and K.C.
8/19/2014 8:10 PM MLB Baseball 968 Minnesota Twins* -102 vs Cleveland Indians
T Bauer - R Listed K Gibson - R Listed
Was Sundays fifth race at Thistledown racetrack in Ohio a textbook case of how to beat the bookie? Thats what one Paulick Report reader thinks, and the evidence is pretty compelling.
Missjeanlouise was odds-on favorite in the six-horse field of $20,000 filly and mare claimers (also open to non-winners of a race in 2014), until the final cycle of wagers was flashed on the tote board midway through the six-furlong race. Missjeanlouise went from 1-2 favorite to 3-1 as the horses approached the far turn. Every other starter in the race took significant action, putting each one of them at odds of between 3-1 to about 5-1. For example, Dusty Lily, the longest shot on the board, dropped from 35-1 to 9-2 in the last flash.
Missjeanlouise won comfortably by 2 1/4 lengths, giving owner Midwest Thoroughbreds and trainer Roger Brueggemann the second of their three winners on the day. Finishing second was Vilao, who went off at 9-2 after being 13-1 before the final odds change, according to a report from the Ohio State Racing Commission.
Missjeanlouise paid a healthy $8.20 to win as the second choice but only $2.10 to place and $2.10 to show, suggesting she was the heavy favorite in the place and show pools. The $2 exacta paid $17.60. View the chart here.
The win-place-show pool in Missjeanlouises race was substantially larger than any other race of the day. A total of $45,855 was wagered in those pools. The next-highest WPS pool of the day was $21,887 in the sixth race, which had eight starters compared to the sixth races six starters.
The average WPS pool of the days seven other races was $14,049, so the fifth race WPS pool was three times larger than the average for the day (excluding race five).
The fifth was not a particularly attractive betting contest in other pools. The $12,536 wagered on exactas was the fourth largest exacta pool of the eight races on Sunday.
So why would someone bet thousands of dollars on other horses in a race, including longshots, to improve the odds on the most probable winner?
Thats simple. Manipulating the odds on the winning horse allows a gambler to receive a bigger payoff betting through a bookmaker or offshore sports/betting book, where the money does not go into the pari-mutuel pools.
It turns out, according to William Crawford, executive director of the Ohio State Racing Commission, that someone put $20,000 on the race ($4,000 on each of the other five starters) betting through an advance deposit wagering service affiliated with the North Dakota-licensed Lien Games.
(Editors Note: The original version of this article incorrectly identified the source of wagers as coming through the Greyhound Channel advance deposit wagering service. The bets were made via an ADW affiliated with North Dakota-licensed Lien Games. Greyhound Channel and Lien Games are not affiliated with each other in any way.)
If the people involved in the odds manipulation made a $10,000 bet with bookmakers on Missjeanlouis, it would return $41,000 at track odds. In that scenario, it would mean an $11,000 profit from the amount wagered ($20,000 through the pools on the five non-winners and $10,000 on the winner through bookmakers). Its possible more than $10,000 would have been bet through various bookmakers and offshore operations so the profit could have been considerably more than $11,000.
If $30,000 had been bet to win on Missjeanlouise through the pari-mutuel pools, the profit would have been five cents on the dollar, or a total of $1,500.
Please note that I am not in any way linking the connections of Missjeanlouise with this possible pool manipulation and beat the bookie scheme. Their horse just happened to be an obvious winner in a short field where the odds could be easily manipulated.
Whats next? Will the Ohio State Racing Commission and/or the Thoroughbred Racing Protective Bureau demand more information from Lien Games on who made the $20,000 in losing wagers? Well keep you posted as we learn more.
UPDATE: The North Dakota Racing Commission, which has jurisdiction over Lien Games, issued the following statement on Tuesday afternoon:
The North Dakota Racing Commission recently became aware of betting through one of our licensed ADWs which may be an attempt at odds manipulation on races at Thistledown racetrack. The Commission immediately reached out to both the TRPB and the Ohio State Racing Commission to begin collaborative efforts in resolving this issue.
It is the highest priority of the North Dakota Racing Commission to ensure the integrity of our licensed ADWs. To that end we have established key relationships with prominent industry members such as the TRPB to support these ongoing efforts. The Commission hopes to use this unfortunate incident as an opportunity to work with the TRPB and others within the industry not just to resolve this single issue, but to begin an effort aimed at developing methods to prevent any possible odds manipulation in the future.
Gambling Gods can be so cruel
Ann Of The Dance Upsets
In CTT & TOC Handicap
St. George Farm Racings Ann of the Dance, overlooked in the wagering at 28-1 despite the presence in the saddle of hot shot apprentice Drayden Van Dyke, got up in the final strides to nose out 11-1 Scarlet Strike in the featured $95,600 CTT & TOC Handicap Friday at Del Mar.
Ann of the Dance, whose racing career had been confined to the East coast until she ran in Del Mars Osunitas Stakes a month ago, finishing eighth, obviously relished the marathon mile and three-eighths over the infield Jimmy Durante Turf Course.
Ninth and last in the early stages of the race, Ann of the Dance rallied into contention in the stretch and closed stoutly along the rail for the narrow win. Customer Base, the 8-5 favorite, was third a half-length behind Scarlet Strike and the same margin in front of fourth-place Charlie Em who led into the stretch.
Ann of the Dance, a five-year-old daughter of English Channel trained by Phil Oliver, negotiated the route in 2:14.73 and returned $59.20, $21 and $6.40 while earning $56,760 with her fourth victory in 26 starts. Her career bankroll is $196,721.
Scarlet Strike, who was piloted by Joe Talamo, paid $11.20 and $5.20 while Customer Base returned $2.80 to show. Topic was withdrawn from the original field.
Ann of the Dance provided Oliver with his second surprise stakes success at Del Mar, the conditioner having won the 2013 Osunitas Stakes with St. George Farm Racings Closing Range who paid $35.40 to win. And, last Saturday, Olivers wife, Victoria, sent out Personal Diary for a $20.20 upset in the Grade I Del Mar Oaks for the partnership of St. George Farm and G. Watts Humphrey, Jr.
With only a single favorite winning in Fridays Pick Six sequence, there were no perfect tickets and Saturdays program will feature a carryover of $106,668. Post time for the first of ten races will be 2 p.m., with the Pick Six presented on races five through ten
Seattle leads MLB +12 Units vs LHP...even more impressive when considering they are only +5.4 for the season
Felix going for the Mariners today
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While Minny hasn't fared well vs LHP (19-26) their RPG (4.7)is above season average. Topped only by their 4.9 within their division.
In limited action 19 IP Trevor May has allowed 30 hits and 14 walks
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As poorly as Texas has played they lead MLB with 5.1 RPG vs LHP...
59-69 o/u overall yet 25-17 o/u LHP
If Rangers are to break out offensively, Vargas could be a prime candidate allowing 101 hits in 86 IP at home
More later
Arizona/UTSA FH u28 -112
Also giving consideration to the o8.5
918 Cleveland Indians -1½ +123* vs Minnesota Twins (T May - R must Start T Bauer - R must Start)
LAS VEGASShortly before 9:00 a.m. on Monday, with the temperature outside slowly climbing toward its customary spot among the triple digits, and with weary football fans making the trek from the Strip to McCarron Airport, professional and amateur horse bettors formed a line at the Wynn race & sports book for the chance to bet on the 2015 Kentucky Derby.
We had people here at the book waiting to wager before we even opened up, said Johnny Avello, the Wynn's executive director of race and sports.
The casino's release on Monday of odds on 250 horsesup from 150 in 2013marked the 23rd time in as many years that Avello and his team at the Wynn offered the option to wager on the most popular and highly anticipated horse race of the year eight months before post time, with bets capped at a maximum win of $20,000.
As of Monday afternoon, 55 wagers had already been placed, according to Avello.
One of those wagers, the first to be made on Monday, was in support of Competitive Edge, the winner of the Hopeful at Saratoga on Sept. 1, who was steadily bet down to 30-1 after opening at 60-1.
The Bob Baffert-trained American Pharaoh, winner of the Del Mar Futurity on Sept. 3, also got a lot of action. The colt began the day as the 2015 Derby favorite at an opening price of 40-1, and was ultimately bet down to 25-1.
Other horses who received support at the betting windows include El Kabeir, winner of a seven-furlong maiden race at Saratoga on Aug. 30 (bet down from 65-1 to 45-1), Carpe Diem, a $1.6 million colt who won his debut at Saratoga on Sept. 1 (100-1 to 65-1), Conquest Panthera, who won at Del Mar in his first time out on Aug. 24 (175-1 to 100-1) and Daredevil, who debuted with a victory at Belmont on Sept. 13 (85-1 to 60-1).
Curiously, two of the 12 horses who began the day with odds lower than 100-1, Cozmic One and Jesss Dream, failed to attract any action early interest. Cozmic One, the first foal of 2009 Breeders Cup Classic winner Zenyatta, opened at 60-1 after recently taking part in his first published workout.
Why bet so early? Well, California Chrome, the winner of the 2014 Derby, paid just $7 on a $2 win bet on race day. But on Sept. 1, 2013, the Wynn had him at 200-1. The first Kentucky Derby futures pool will have the greatest odds simply because it is still such a crap shoot this far out, says Marco DAngelo, a professional horse and sports bettor who owns the website WagerTalk.com. Only 20 of these horses will get the chance to race in the Derby. As a horse owner, I know there are too many things that can derail a horses road to the Derbyinjuries, sickness, being a late developer. So many things have to go right to win a race like this and thats assuming the horse already possesses the talent to get the job done.
Good luck... Have no outs hanging the above...but would have loved to have had the 60-1 on Competitive Edge
Great horses returning off a layoff at short odds are a recipe for pari-mutuel ruin. If they win, you barely win. If they lose, you lose. Not much reward for the risk. California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit) fits that bill this Saturday in the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby (G2) going nine furlongs at Parx Racing.
The winner of four straight graded stakes, including three Grade 1s and the first two legs of the Triple Crown, California Chrome was given a brief rest after the Belmont Stakes before returning to the workout tab at the start of August and looks like he has progressed in his training to be ready to go on Saturday.
Luckily, he does not carry a lot of weight so as long as he is sound -- and it looks like he is with his workouts on schedule each week -- he won't take too long to be fit and ready. And, he will have to be as the $1 million purse and nine-furlong distance has attracted a decent field.
For betting purposes, anything less than even-money is unacceptable. He is the most logical winner of the race by far but what usually happens in these kinds of races is that the next most logical contenders tend to get overbet as well.
Bayern (Offlee Wild) is back off his Travers (G1) debacle where we will never know if he could get 10 furlongs after being strangled early and out of the race before a mile was run. If the Bayern who won the Haskell (G1) going nine furlongs shows up, it should be a real horse race with California Chrome.
The problem is that I don't think he will be close to the 7-2 morning-line so we have the chance of having not one, but two overbet horses.
If both of the most logical winners are overbet, it's time to take a serious look at the less logical winners. Weighing the chance of winning and pari-mutuel return, I give Protonico (Giant's Causeway) a serious shot at a price even though he is trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Javier Castellano.
What Protonico has going for him is a win over the track in the Smarty Jones (G3), a pedigree that should see him get better with time and he still has an upside with only five career starts.
The dark bay made his 2014 debut a winning one off a seven-month layoff at Belmont where he beat first-level optional claiming foes going a mile. He came back a month later for his two-turn debut at Saratoga going nine furlongs in the Curlin Stakes where he was part of a three-way photo behind subsequent Travers winner V. E. Day (English Channel).
Not quite ready for the 10-furlong Travers, Pletcher set his sights on the lucrative Pennsylvania Derby for Protonico and used the Smarty Jones to get a race over the track. Farther back in the pack than normal, the colt raced between horses in the second tier behind a strong pace. At the top of the stretch, he looked hopelessly beat but Joe Bravo found room and split horses to make an improbable late run to get up at the wire.
Protonico earned a career-best BRIS Speed rating of 97, which doesn't put him in the mix here unless he can improve off that effort and go forward again. By Giant's Causeway, the Kentucky-bred is the first foal to race out of Alpha Spirit (A.P. Indy), who is herself a daughter of a Delaware H. (G2) winner.
Offspring of Giant's Causeway get better with age and this one looks to be no exception. Another reason I think that Protonico still has an upside is that he missed the entire Triple Crown campaign. He started getting cranked up at Payson Park in December but went to the sidelines until he showed up on the Oklahoma training track at Saratoga in May.
Unlike the other Pletcher three-year-olds who are usually toast this time of year from racing on the concrete at Gulfstream Park, Protonico has been a fresh horse in the second half of the year and he could make some noise, at a price, in Saturday's Pennsylvania Derby.
In the race before the Derby, the $1 million Cotillion (G1) will be run for three-year-old fillies going 1 1/16 miles on the main track and it has attracted a stellar field.
Untapable (Tapit) is the 7-5 favorite despite finishing up the track against males in the Haskell. She had dominated her division prior to that with monster wins in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and Mother Goose (G1). The daughter of Tapit has the typical series of easy breezes for trainer Steve Asmussen and gets Rosie Napravnik back aboard.
When Asmussen sent Untapable to the Haskell, it opened the door for the other sophomore fillies at Saratoga and Stopchargingmaria (Tale of the Cat) took advantage of her absence better than anyone. She won the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) by five lengths going nine furlongs then came back and captured the Alabama (G1) by three parts of a length going 10 furlongs.
Looming behind the top two is three-time Grade 1 winner Sweet Reason (Street Sense). She won the one-mile Acorn (G1), so another sixteenth of a mile should not be a big deal but the only win she has going two turns is against allowance foes on the inner dirt track.
Still, the bay miss comes in here in great form and her late kick is devastating. Can she unleash it going two turns is the big question. So far, the record shows that Sweet Reason is a long sprinter. With experience and maturity, can she be a middle distance filly going two turns? We'll see on Saturday in a race with Breeders' Cup implications for two races.
Would love to see the Vol's regain prominence of years past unfortunately the Kiffin debacle will linger yet another year..Lack of a passing game coupled with Georgia's SUPERIOR running attack leads me to lay the lumber here....Will also have a look at FH...
College Football 178 Georgia -17 -107* vs Tennessee U
Race #8 09/26/2014
Belmont Park
Win
# 4
In a statement released by the Breeders Cup, Craig Fravel, the president and chief executive of the Breeders Cup, said the move against ONeill was due to the recent administrative action by the New York State Gaming Commission, with Fravel citing a Breeders Cup rule, adopted in 2010 and amended in 2012, that bars trainers who have been found to have Class 1 or Class 2 medication violations in the preceding 12 months.
ONeill this week was suspended 45 days and fined $10,000 by New York authorities for the finding of the drug Oxazepam, a sedative with muscle-relaxing properties, in the post-race sample of Wind of Bosphorus, who won a $35,000 claiming race at Belmont Park on June 2, 2013.
Oxapezam is a Class 2 drug, according to the American Racing Commissioners Internationals website.
I accept the Breeders Cup decision and will not appeal, ONeill said in a telephone call. These are the two biggest days of the sport, and the last thing I want to do is be a distraction. The focus should be on these beautiful horses, and not on me.
ONeill won the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile last year with Goldencents, who was scheduled to have his final prep for this years Breeders Cup in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship on Saturday. ONeill had several other potential Breeders Cup runners, including Private Zone, who is bound for the BC Sprint after winning the Vosburgh in New York last week. ONeill, 46, is best known for winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness in 2012 with Ill Have Another.
The New York suspension for ONeill is set to begin Nov. 3 after the Breeders Cup is run at Santa Anita on Oct. 31 and Nov. 1 and last until Dec. 17, just before Santa Anitas main winter meeting begins Dec. 26.
However, ONeill said he had reached out Friday to New York authorities to see if his suspension could begin as early as Monday so he would be officially on suspension during the Breeders Cup.
I just want to get this behind me, he said.
ONeill could face additional penalties from California authorities owing to a medication violation in 2010 that was adjudicated in 2012.
On Aug. 25, 2010, at Del Mar, one of ONeills horses, Argenta, was found to have raced with a higher-than-permitted level of total carbon dioxide. For that violation, the CHRB on May 29, 2012, suspended ONeills license for 180 days but stayed 135 of those days provided ONeill did not receive another medication positive at a California track or any U.S. or international racing jurisdiction for a Class 1, 2, or 3 drug during an 18-month probationary period.
The New York violation would seem to fall within that 18-month period.
The CHRB is aware of the sanctions imposed against ONeill by the New York commission. The issue is under investigation by the CHRB.
Rams 2013 one of 4 teams with 3+ sacks per game...
2014 0.2 sacks per game..worst in the NFL
FH Offense
Indy, Denver and surprisingly Mooch's Niners are the only teams scoring 17+ FH Oakland and Tampa only teams scoring less than 6 FH PPG
Best FH Defense?
Cinci and Detroit only teams allowing less than 6
Cleveland/*Tampa worst FH defense allowing 17 +
*Worth noting Tampa allowing 10 at home
Four NFL teams rush for less than 80 YPG
Denver, Jacksonville, Oakland and Carolina
Four NFL teams allow 150+ RYPG
Cleveland, St. Louis Oakland and Green Bay
Both at the top of Pac 12 offensively ...unfortunately for Cal they rank at the bottom defensively...After a disappointing home loss to Zona, Oregon cannot afford another..Duck's have put up big numbers versus much better defenses...No reason they shouldn't top tonight's team total
Oregon o48