Haskell analysis
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Let's start from the rail out. Any Given Saturday comes off a huge performance in the Dwyer, but i really don't think that applies here (except to show that he's in very good form). The Dwyer was a one-turn race, and once AGS put away his pace foe Nobiz Like Shobiz, the race was over, with nobody else coming after him (it was another 5 lengths back to the field after Nobiz). That won't be the case here. Hard to see AGS on the lead here, with comitted front-runner Cable Boy drawn directly to his outside, not to mention Hard Spun and Xchangewr sure to show a good bit of speed from the outside. The pace here figures pretty fast. Likely AGS will try to let Cable Boy go and then come up on his outside, but if so he'll have the other two breathing down his neck. The other alternative is sitting back along the inside while those three go, but that's problematic as well, because he's liable to be boxed in a bit with Curlin to his outside. Plus he wouldn't have a head-start on that one. Just looks like a tough spot for AGS.
Cable Boy will be hard-pressed to wire this field, especially with the expected fast pace. Can't like.
Imawildandcrazyguy should be coming late, but Curlin and the others will have a head-start on him (likely a big one), and he hasn't demonstrated the kind of talent it'll take to run then down.
Ditto for Reata's Shadow.
Curlin should sit a good trip here, loping along behind the leaders behind a fast pace. Should find himself in the clear as well. He's the best horse, and though this isn't a huge goal of his, it's still a $1 million race and i doubt very much he's short on conditioning after the three Triple Crown races and a steady series of works after a short 3-week break. Throw in the fact he worked heads-up with West Virginia Derby winner Zanjero recently, and he looks very tough in here. Obviously. Should be tough to stop.
Hard Spun might be able to sit a nice trip here, as he showed some stalking ability in the Preakness and Lane's End before unleashing nice moves. He has shown himself to be a little headstrong though (which has been blamed on the jockey Pino, back aboard today), and there's a chance he could get caught up in the fast pace and leave himself vulnerable to Curlin. He's the second-most likely winner i think, but will need a patient ride here, and a head start on Curlin as well. Can't endorse at what will be a reasonably short price.
Xchanger will likely be doing the dirty work of pressing Cable Boy on the lead. Doesn't help that he breaks from the outside here and will likely be rushed a bit into the first turn. Almost certainly will be passed by Hard Spun at some point, not to mention Curlin and whomever else. Very hard to like.
Cable Boy will be hard-pressed to wire this field, especially with the expected fast pace. Can't like.
Imawildandcrazyguy should be coming late, but Curlin and the others will have a head-start on him (likely a big one), and he hasn't demonstrated the kind of talent it'll take to run then down.
Ditto for Reata's Shadow.
Curlin should sit a good trip here, loping along behind the leaders behind a fast pace. Should find himself in the clear as well. He's the best horse, and though this isn't a huge goal of his, it's still a $1 million race and i doubt very much he's short on conditioning after the three Triple Crown races and a steady series of works after a short 3-week break. Throw in the fact he worked heads-up with West Virginia Derby winner Zanjero recently, and he looks very tough in here. Obviously. Should be tough to stop.
Hard Spun might be able to sit a nice trip here, as he showed some stalking ability in the Preakness and Lane's End before unleashing nice moves. He has shown himself to be a little headstrong though (which has been blamed on the jockey Pino, back aboard today), and there's a chance he could get caught up in the fast pace and leave himself vulnerable to Curlin. He's the second-most likely winner i think, but will need a patient ride here, and a head start on Curlin as well. Can't endorse at what will be a reasonably short price.
Xchanger will likely be doing the dirty work of pressing Cable Boy on the lead. Doesn't help that he breaks from the outside here and will likely be rushed a bit into the first turn. Almost certainly will be passed by Hard Spun at some point, not to mention Curlin and whomever else. Very hard to like.
Comments
Not sure what to make of Curlin, who was in perfect position turning for home and just got outrun. Doesn't bode well for him that Monmouth hosts the Breeders Cup this year either (assuming the surface was any kind of problem). The reverse is true of AGS.
He's a big, heavy bodied character to begin with, but I thought they were going to hitch him to the Budweiser wagon.
I'm guessing he gets a good boost in fitness from this effort. They probably run him back in the Super Derby and go to the BC.