Horse Racing - Saturday
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Saratoga - Race 9
#9 Sheets (6/1 ml)
Hard not to like this filly after her 4-length thrashing of Sindy With An S, who is quite possibly the best sprint filly in the country (outside of the injured Magnificience). The track was quite a mess that day, and i don't think Sindy handled it too well, but regardless of that Sheets' running time compares very favorably to the other top-quality races on Calder's Summit of Speed card.
For instance, Sheets ran a 21.2, 44.2, 57.0, 110.2. Two races later, a very fast group of older fillies ran the Grade 1 Princess Rooney in 21.2, 44.2, 57.1, 110.3. As you can see, Sheets ran slightly faster than the top-lever older fillies. Also on the card (one race after Sheets), the outstanding young sprinter Black Seventeen hoked up with Teuflesberg thru fractions of 21.3, 44.2, 56.4, 109.4. That one was obviousy a little faster, but the first half-mile once again compares very favorably.
Going further, Sheets has shown the abilty to stalk, which should set it up nicely here from her outside post with a ton of speed to her inside. She should be able to lay off a very hot pace and then punch it in, which should play very well at this 7-furlong distance. I believe she'll be pretty much ignored here, with high-profile sorts like Dream Rush, Appealing Zophie, and Cottom Blossom talking all the action. Wouldn't be surprised if she approaches 10/1. Great value here.
HRT record:
2 for 7 (29%)
$15.10 mutuels ($7.55 avg)
#9 Sheets (6/1 ml)
Hard not to like this filly after her 4-length thrashing of Sindy With An S, who is quite possibly the best sprint filly in the country (outside of the injured Magnificience). The track was quite a mess that day, and i don't think Sindy handled it too well, but regardless of that Sheets' running time compares very favorably to the other top-quality races on Calder's Summit of Speed card.
For instance, Sheets ran a 21.2, 44.2, 57.0, 110.2. Two races later, a very fast group of older fillies ran the Grade 1 Princess Rooney in 21.2, 44.2, 57.1, 110.3. As you can see, Sheets ran slightly faster than the top-lever older fillies. Also on the card (one race after Sheets), the outstanding young sprinter Black Seventeen hoked up with Teuflesberg thru fractions of 21.3, 44.2, 56.4, 109.4. That one was obviousy a little faster, but the first half-mile once again compares very favorably.
Going further, Sheets has shown the abilty to stalk, which should set it up nicely here from her outside post with a ton of speed to her inside. She should be able to lay off a very hot pace and then punch it in, which should play very well at this 7-furlong distance. I believe she'll be pretty much ignored here, with high-profile sorts like Dream Rush, Appealing Zophie, and Cottom Blossom talking all the action. Wouldn't be surprised if she approaches 10/1. Great value here.
HRT record:
2 for 7 (29%)
$15.10 mutuels ($7.55 avg)
Comments
Del Mar - Race 4
#2 Tizsong (5/2 ml)
This one has the look of a major prospect for Mandella. He comes in with some strong workout reports, last three over the Polytrack. What really catches my eye however are the three consecutive 1-mile drills. That's almost unheard-of for a first-time starter going 6 furlongs, and what's most noteworthy about them is that Mandella has a history of working his big-time stakes horses (Grade 1 winning types) consecutive miles. That alone is an indication what Mandella thinks of this horse, and on top of that, he's likely dead-fit for his polytrack run, which is important on this tiring surface. It also doesn't hurt that the 2/1 ml favorite (#7 Bad Boy) is an 0-for-10 maiden.
Del Mar - Race 8
#3 Mr. Big (3/1 ml)
This colt is a half-brother to the total-freak Magnificience, and he has a lot of talent himself. I've been on him in both career starts, and he ran very well both times. Made an eye-catching move in his debut (attempting two-turns, no less) and looked like the winner, but caught wide around the turn and lost ground. He surgeed to the lead anyway, but started racing very greenly and was probably a tad short on conditioning. Really no question he was the best horse, despite finishing third. came back in start #2 and won impressively with the race under his belt, as you might expect. Continues to train well, although he's yet to work over the Polytrack. I doubt he's short on conditioning however, with the two routes under his belt and no missed work in-between. Drew a nice inside post here, and should benefit from what appears to be a contested pace. Little doubt he'll run well, and for some reason the Racing Form guys are picking against him. Fine with me.
PS - Perfect example that a horse doesn't need to be a big price to constitute an overlay.
Officially 0-for-3 today. Seven losers in a row since my red-hot start on Wednesday...