Todd Pletcher's record with 2yo first-time starters @ Saratoga
DiscreetCat
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I've stolen these stats from my friend Alan, who i believe got them using DRF's Formulator. I believe they include last Wednesday and Thursday cards, but nothing since then...
Over the last two Saratoga meets, Todd Pletcher (renowned for his success with 2yo firsters) is a terrible 3-for-30 with 2yo first-time starters on the main track.
If you go back three years instead of two, his success rate jumps from 10% up to 20% (he was 7-for-21 in 2004).
If you use the last two years while EXCLUDING Saratoga, his success rate is 24%.
Pletcher has lost with 11 of his last 12 such entrants who went off @ less than 3/1 odds.
These stats have actually gotten worse over the last several days, with a couple more Pletcher firsters going down in flames. What does all this mean? Well, maybe nothing. It could be a fluke. But it appears to me that over the last two years, Pletcher has made an effort to debut his top 2yo prospects BEFORE they get to Saratoga. Most likely so that he can have them ready for Saratoga's fine 2yo stakes program. The numbers seem to back that up; 5 of Pletcher's 9 graded stakes wins at the meet last year came from 2yo's. And he's already bagged the Sanford this year with the outstanding young colt Ready's Image.
Just something to keep in mind when you see a Todd Pletcher first-timer getting pounded on the Saratoga toteboard (as most of them do).
Over the last two Saratoga meets, Todd Pletcher (renowned for his success with 2yo firsters) is a terrible 3-for-30 with 2yo first-time starters on the main track.
If you go back three years instead of two, his success rate jumps from 10% up to 20% (he was 7-for-21 in 2004).
If you use the last two years while EXCLUDING Saratoga, his success rate is 24%.
Pletcher has lost with 11 of his last 12 such entrants who went off @ less than 3/1 odds.
These stats have actually gotten worse over the last several days, with a couple more Pletcher firsters going down in flames. What does all this mean? Well, maybe nothing. It could be a fluke. But it appears to me that over the last two years, Pletcher has made an effort to debut his top 2yo prospects BEFORE they get to Saratoga. Most likely so that he can have them ready for Saratoga's fine 2yo stakes program. The numbers seem to back that up; 5 of Pletcher's 9 graded stakes wins at the meet last year came from 2yo's. And he's already bagged the Sanford this year with the outstanding young colt Ready's Image.
Just something to keep in mind when you see a Todd Pletcher first-timer getting pounded on the Saratoga toteboard (as most of them do).
Comments
My mistake, it was actually 4 out of 9. His quartet of 2yo graded stakes winners included Circular Quay, Adieu, Cotton Blossom, and Octave.