Kona Gold Stakes (Grade II) Analysis

2daysrace2daysrace Senior Member
edited April 2015 in Horse Racing Forum
This race really isn’t Grade II quality, but feels more like a trial for potential Graded Stakes types. Sahara Sky is the only proven Graded Stakes runner in the field as he owns four Graded Stakes wins, while the rest of the field has zero combined. ‘Sky obviously would be a big threat if he ran his top race, but he is a 7-year-old that hasn’t raced since June, and his last two starts before the layoff were subpar. He merits respect, but also might need the race. Spirit Rules and San Onofre finished 1-2 in a Cal-bred Stake Jan 24. Rules came back to run 3rd in a Cal-bred Stake on the grass Feb 21, while ‘Onofre has been working very fast since. The latter came off a 11-month layoff that day, and also had a fourrace win streak snapped, so he has room to improve.

Masochistic moves from Avila To Ellis. He finished a distant 2nd in his only Stake to date, a route Sept 6, but has won his last four sprints, and tops the charting off his win over mid-level Allowance foes Feb 28. He could step up and play ball with these. Caminetto seems an odd-ball entrant from the Baffert barn. He won a couple of times with much softer in 2013, didn’t race in 2013 and was last in his only start last year when facing mid-level Allowance foes July 19. He is a first-time gelding and has worked very well for this return. We’ll watch the betting for more clues. In the end, this one looks pretty wide open, so we’re going to take an HF 15a shot with San Onofre, but only if he offers some value on the tote.

CLOSERS: Fastest in the stretch in recent races at or near this distance have been Sahara Sky :31.1 - Seeking The Sherif :31.5 - Masochistic :31.6

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