Will one of these 3 win the Ky Derby?
fbwinners
Senior Member
Carpe Diem
Dortmund
Upstart
Dortmund
Upstart
fbwinners
Senior Member
Comments
Of the three - Dortmund. Well, that's who I have in my futures pool.
I also have Texas Red and am waiting to see how he looks getting back to the track. I'm not giving up on him yet . . .
All the best, Sean
That's true, Dortmund does have a win over the track. I had forgotten about that.
Pletcher's Carpe Diem does not have a win over the track, however. He has a win at Keeneland, maybe that's what you're thinking of.
Don't forget about Firing Line.
Dortmund's big win in the San Felipe really flatters him. Should have a pretty east road to the Derby too, with only a win in the Sunland Derby (and good health) standing in his way.
I think he's a hanger, he every shot to be Dortmund last out and let him come back up the rail to get him at the wire.
I tend to disagree. It looked that way in the Bob Lewis, but it sure didn't look that way at all in the Los Al Futurity (when he was caught between horses, no less).
I guess we'll find out soon enough (but probably not @ Sunland, for obvious reasons).
When I see a horse with a running line of 4-1-3-0 as of Firing Line, he had a 1 length lead in the stretch and for some reason didn't finish down the lane, as with Mr. Z. 10-1-3-4, IMO they fold up tank when they get in a battle. But this what makes racing great, we all our ways of capping and that's why we get certain prices on each runner each and every day.
I'm pretty sure he was referencing Super Saver with his win at CD in the Ky Jockey Club Stakes, before the Ky Derby.
I agree on horse records. Hate hate hate animals with more in the money efforts than wins. BUT Firing Line lost his first start in tough race, crushed, and then missed two noses to the derby favorite... So he 's legit. Mr. Z would lose by a neck to lord Nelson.
Firing Line had traffic trouble in his maiden debut; that's why he didn't win that one. Frankly, turn around that fluky Dortmund thing and he should be 3-for-4 lifetime.
I do agree with your premise, however, i think it applies mainly to horses that lack "heart", or have competitiveness issues. Based on what i saw from Firing Line in the Los Al Futurity (admittely just one race), i seriously doubt that's the case. He's also the only horse i've seen that's been able to pretty much just breeze right by Dortmund (which is what i saw in the Bob Lewis, jmo). I think he's a highly impressive colt.
All that being said, i must admit that there does seem to be a very bad trend forming in Firing Line's career (results-wise). The really good ones seem to find a way to win (like Dortmund), rather than constantly being "unluckly".
Speaking of which, the unluckiest horse in the world (Dreaming of Gold) has been entered back @ Gulfstream on Saturday.
Let's shift gears here. What do we think about Prospect Park? I'm a pretty big fan...
I'm real high on Prospect Park, he was my selection over Dortmund last weekend. I think his career race and form cycle will be on Ky Derby Day. He as the look of a Real Quiet type. I prefer him over Firing Line on my end.
Actually have a small PP future..
in short ....................no
Quote from Firing Line Trainer! I thought this was interesting!
But he still demands special care. Twice in the past month on Feb. 27 and March 9 Firing Line has undergone shock-wave therapy, which can be used to treat soft-tissue and bone ailments. Callaghan said it was done on Firing Line to cover all the bases.
That is interesting to say the least. Not a fan of his, to begin with, this certainly doesn't do the colt any favors...
It seems a little ODD to me, that's why I posted it for the forum.
1. Team Baffert walked American Pharaoh over to the paddock with four (4) handlers around him.
2. While being saddled, American Pharaoh was hard to handle, and it took all four (4) handlers to get him settled so he could be saddled.
3. All the time, his ears were pricked and he glared at every horse in the paddock and would have taken a bite out of anyone that got close enough to reach.
4. AP has muscle on top of muscle.
5. I watched the race with several trainers, and afterward, when showing the replay, all were just in awe of his stride. That's all I heard!
6. Until he has a hiccup, this is the horse to beat! I know the experts talk about his dam side being sprint heavy and his not being able to get the distance, but when you see a horse like American Pharaoh, all that dosage factor shit becomes meaningless! This is one serious racehorse!
Thanks for the insight. I believe, as well, this horse is simply a freak.
You mean like not making his 3yo debut until mid-March?
Nice horse and everything, but i've gotta think winning the Derby will be an extremely tall order, considering his lack of foundation. I also think he has a very unfavorable running style, as one-dimensional frontrunners almost never win the Derby.
I know, who's to say he's one-dimensoional? He may even try to purposely take back a bit in his final Derby prep. The fact remains though, his only wins to date have been wire jobs.
Looks like he drew the rail, btw.
I'm pretty sure he could load backwards and win.
I concur. The FL Derby is coming up weak in terms of entrants. I can't come up with more than 5 runners. Upstart should roll, but long term, how does a short field "harden" the colt? We shall see.
The LA Derby appears to warrant more entrants. I don't know the how the overall depth of the field will be, but perhaps with a bigger field, there will be some adversity those entered may have to overcome. As we all know, overcoming adversity is certainly a plus come the first Saturday in May.
The West Coast preps appear to be the deepest as far as talent. The San Felipe was a great prep and I expect the SA Derby to be the same. It appears the bench is much deeper out West. This group of colts should be battle tested, relative to the deep crop.
There is a long way to go yet, but at this point, the West controls things in my eyes.