Horse Racing Forum
Discussion Forum
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 06-05-2015, 05:15 PM   #1
Senior Member
BettingTalk Member Avatar
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 149
Thanks: 0
Thanked 8 Times in 8 Posts
Rep Power: 5
2daysrace broke well from the gate
Default June 6, 2015 Belmont Park, Race 11 (Belmont Park Stakes)

ANALYSIS: Here we go again. Since Affirmed won the Triple Crown in 1978, 13 horses have come into the Belmont with a shot at immortality, and all 13 were judged unworthy by the ‘Racing Gods’. On three of those occasions, Baffert was the trainer of the TC hopeful, and two of the three (Silver Charm and Real Quiet) ran very well. Perhaps the fourth time is the charm with American Pharoah. He lost his debut while wearing blinkers, but has rattled off six straight wins since, including a daylight romp in the slop in the Preakness May 16. He definitely has the talent, and he just might take them gate to wire if the others let him control the pace. The knocks are that he’s never raced at Belmont, something every other Triple Crown winner had done prior to winning the Belmont, his ability to get the distance (a concern for all the horses) and the fact most of his challengers have been freshened since the Derby while he had to do his thing in the Preakness. Would a win surprise? Not in the least. Is he bettable at less than even money? Not with our money. That brings us to the challengers. Materiality won his first three starts on or near the early lead, but lost all chance in the Derby when breaking slowly and struggling with dirt getting kicked in his face. He still finished strongly to be 6th, and he may have gotten a lot out of that troubled effort. Drawing outside of Pharoah, Velasquez, who was aboard for his first three wins, has the option of sitting just off the favorite ready to pounce, or going straight to the lead if ‘Pharoah doesn’t want it. He seems to be the right play and will get the HF 15a. Frosted rallied for 4th in the Derby, a strong effort considering the pace was slow and the 1-2-3 finishers were all up close early. He likely won’t be as far back today, and could benefit greatly if ‘Pharoah and Materiality move too soon trying to get the jump on each other. Madefromlucky is a barnmate of Materiality and he won the Gr. II Peter Pan here when having the blinkers removed May 9. The 1-2 finishers from the Peter Pan ran 1-2 in the Belmont last year, so you definitely have to respect a proven winner on this unique, sandy layout. Finally, Keen Ice is our longshot. He has only a Maiden win to his credit, but his 7th in the Kentucky Derby was way better than looked as he got stopped cold on the outside turning for home, but came home strongly after bulling his way between a couple of horses. We’ll be applauding if American Pharoah wins, and Baffert certainly is a deserving trainer. If it doesn’t happen, let’s hope there isn’t any classless rants like last year, or people calling for changes to make it easier. The Triple Crown is supposed to be a stern test that should only be passed by the very best in the history of the sport. Isn’t that what makes it so special?
CLOSERS: Fastest in the stretch in recent races at or near this distance have been: Frosted :49.7 – Keen Ice :50.6 – American Pharoah :50.8
2daysrace is offline  
Reply Reply With Quote
Old 06-05-2015, 05:38 PM   #2
Senior Member
BettingTalk Member Avatar
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 138
Thanks: 5
Thanked 10 Times in 10 Posts
Rep Power: 11
rhgraham broke well from the gate
Can't see anyone getting past AP BUT de Kock must think he has a shot.
rhgraham is offline  
Reply Reply With Quote
  The Following User Says Thank You to rhgraham For This Useful Post:
risky101 (06-06-2015)

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Contact Us - Horse Racing Talk - Archive - Top

HorseRacingTalk is a forum for handicappers. Register today and join in the horse racing discussions.