Who are your upsets to hit the board?

FlyinLate · 04-22-2009, 07:13 AM

We've had ALOT of discussion around winners, and a few posts about who might run on late to create those large exotics.

Let's eliminate all main contenders. No Quality Road, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk, Pioneer of the Nile, Chocolate Candy, Papa Clem, and Fresian Fire.

Use the Poll and discuss.

FlyinLate · 04-22-2009, 07:15 AM

Also, I ask that everyone limit their selections to three (3).

Draynay · 04-22-2009, 07:18 AM

Mr. Hot Stuff, MM, and GQ will be on the bottom of my ticket. The others.... I would not bet with your money.

FlyinLate · 04-22-2009, 07:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Draynay

Mr. Hot Stuff, MM, and GQ will be on the bottom of my ticket. The others.... I would not bet with your money.

If you don't mind, punch those three in the poll. It'll be easier to get a tally and see how the forum views it. Not to mention I've noticed people who tend not to participate verbally in threads will often atleast punch some horses in the poll.

hue21998 · 04-22-2009, 12:30 PM

YOU KNOW MINE ALREADY WELL 2. SB and MHS. Im far from a square head eddy fan but we really dont know his potential. I really think he was pulled back in the last race to not use him up. as i said not a big fan but ya never know in a 20 horse pinball game

rayphil · 04-22-2009, 06:30 PM

Although I Picked My 3 I Have A Feelin That One Of The Oil Mans Horses Are Going To Hit The Board.

DiscreetCat · 04-22-2009, 10:41 PM

Mr. Hot Stuff/Win Willy/Summer Bird

Draynay · 04-22-2009, 10:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DiscreetCat

Mr. Hot Stuff/Win Willy/Summer Bird

If Win Willy or Summer Bird hit the board I will wear a pink dress every day of my life and change my name to Sally.

The only way they hit the board is if they jump the fence and run into it.

hue21998 · 04-23-2009, 02:09 AM

Thats a bet ill send the film for pictures......SALLY

FlyinLate · 04-23-2009, 07:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Draynay

If Win Willy or Summer Bird hit the board I will wear a pink dress every day of my life and change my name to Sally.

The only way they hit the board is if they jump the fence and run into it.

Will you leave the site if either horse finishes 4th or better?

Mikenyce · 04-23-2009, 06:15 PM

Just got done looking at the PP for the derby contenders. I have to agree with you there Draynay I dont think Win Willy or Summer Bird have any cahnce of hitting the board

hue21998 · 04-23-2009, 06:37 PM

mike your supposed to have my back on summer bird lol

Draynay · 04-23-2009, 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyinLate

Will you leave the site if either horse finishes 4th or better?

You got a deal...... if you agree to leave if they don't.....deal ?

FlyinLate · 04-23-2009, 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Draynay

You got a deal...... if you agree to leave if they don't.....deal ?

I've been here for two years, you've been here for two weeks. Big difference.

hue21998 · 04-23-2009, 07:56 PM

I hope nobody has to leave i want to see the pics in the pink dress lol as opposed to the purple vikings hat.

Draynay · 04-23-2009, 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyinLate

I've been here for two years, you've been here for two weeks. Big difference.

Why don't we just agree not to agree. Look I am just talking horses and giving my opinion. You don't have to like my opinion but just let it go.....

If you have a idea who is going to win the Derby post it and tell us why. If you can't do that then just move along.

We only have a few days left to figure out our tickets and I am looking for insight and clarity if you have some to offer let me know.

justin13892002 · 04-24-2009, 06:18 AM

DRF had a file available showing the PPs of the last 17 Derby winners (since Lil E. Tee in '91). I never usually even see Beyer Speed figures, but in the spirit of making lemonade out of the lemons you have, here goes.

15 of the 17 winners had Beyer Speed figures of 102 or greater. The only exceptions were Giacomo at 95 and Sea Hero at 91. 14 of the 17 had a Beyer of 100 or over in the race previous to the Derby and 13 of the 17 had at least two Beyers over 100 in their past performances.

Last year only five horses had a race over 100. Big Brown had two 106's, Gayego had a 103 and a 102, Eight Belles had a 100 and a 99, Z Fortune and Recapture the Glory had 102's. Of course the results were Big Brown, Eight Belles-2nd Denis of Cork,-3rd Tale of Ekati-4th and Recapture(etc) 5th. The other 2 finished 10th and 17th.
.
This year in the lists of top contenders I can only find DUNKIRK, QUALITY ROAD, FRIESAN FIRE, I WANT REVENGE and PAPA CLEM with last race Beyers at or above 102. West Side Bernie at 101 could be a bubble horse. I Want Revenge and Quality Road are the only horses with 2 Beyers over 100 in 2009.

Only Big Brown won with as few as 3 lifetime prep races - his last two routes were 106-106; his first on turf was 90 - so he had 3 route preps. This makes Dunkirk a little suspect because after one 7f race at 77 he has had two routes at 9f the 2nd race at 98 and the most recent at 108.

In jms62 Pace parameters post it said that in 9 out of 11 years the data had been kept the winner came from the “PF” column of data. That would mean QUALITY ROAD, WIN WILLY, FRIESAN FIRE, I WANT REVENGE and PIONEER OF THE NILE.

I never took statistics but if you have (15/17) x (9/11) = .72 (some math wiz please verify), it looks like among the three dual qualifiers (Bold) you have a 72% chance of getting the winner out of these three.

So far the list of entrants to the Derby is not complete, so this info might change.

justin13892002 · 04-24-2009, 06:22 AM

That was a post from Bill Lyster on Pace N Cap

hue21998 · 04-24-2009, 12:16 PM

Was quality road a dual qualifier?

justin13892002 · 04-24-2009, 01:01 PM

Quality Road, I want Revenge and Friesan Fire qualify. If you bet these 3, according to the stats, you have a 72% chance of winning.

hue21998 · 04-24-2009, 01:04 PM

ok i just have seen no info about QR being a dual qualifier i dont believe he is

DiscreetCat · 04-27-2009, 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Draynay

If Win Willy or Summer Bird hit the board I will wear a pink dress every day of my life and change my name to Sally.

The only way they hit the board is if they jump the fence and run into it.

YouTube - Johnny Cash "A Boy Named Sue" ORIGINAL

Draynay · 04-27-2009, 06:46 PM

lol....

hue21998 · 04-28-2009, 03:16 AM

Here at Horseracingtalk we have our own, A Boy Named Sally

View Poll Results: Which upset(s) will hit the board?
Mr Hot Stuff	6	26.09%
Summer Bird	7	30.43%
Hold Me Back	0	0%
Win Willy	7	30.43%
Musket Man	7	30.43%
General Quarters	2	8.70%
Desert Party	3	13.04%
Regal Ransom	4	17.39%
Square Eddie	6	26.09%
Other (Please list in thread)	1	4.35%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 23. You may not vote on this poll

04-22-2009, 07:13 AM	#1
FlyinLate Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Chicago Posts: 1,819 Thanks: 34 Thanked 127 Times in 44 Posts Rep Power: 8	Who are your upsets to hit the board? We've had ALOT of discussion around winners, and a few posts about who might run on late to create those large exotics. Let's eliminate all main contenders. No Quality Road, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk, Pioneer of the Nile, Chocolate Candy, Papa Clem, and Fresian Fire. Use the Poll and discuss.

04-22-2009, 10:41 PM	#7
DiscreetCat Moderator Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 6,134 Thanks: 75 Thanked 195 Times in 164 Posts Rep Power: 18	Mr. Hot Stuff/Win Willy/Summer Bird __________________ www.DiscreetPicks.com

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04-22-2009, 07:15 AM	#2
FlyinLate Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Chicago Posts: 1,819 Thanks: 34 Thanked 127 Times in 44 Posts Rep Power: 8	Also, I ask that everyone limit their selections to three (3).

04-22-2009, 07:18 AM	#3
Draynay Banned Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 975 Thanks: 3 Thanked 3 Times in 3 Posts Rep Power: 0	Mr. Hot Stuff, MM, and GQ will be on the bottom of my ticket. The others.... I would not bet with your money.

04-22-2009, 12:30 PM	#5
hue21998 Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 968 Thanks: 0 Thanked 70 Times in 1 Post Rep Power: 0	YOU KNOW MINE ALREADY WELL 2. SB and MHS. Im far from a square head eddy fan but we really dont know his potential. I really think he was pulled back in the last race to not use him up. as i said not a big fan but ya never know in a 20 horse pinball game

04-22-2009, 06:30 PM	#6
rayphil Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: Baltimore,Md. Posts: 1,906 Thanks: 78 Thanked 53 Times in 47 Posts Rep Power: 8	Although I Picked My 3 I Have A Feelin That One Of The Oil Mans Horses Are Going To Hit The Board.

04-23-2009, 02:09 AM	#9
hue21998 Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 968 Thanks: 0 Thanked 70 Times in 1 Post Rep Power: 0	Thats a bet ill send the film for pictures......SALLY

04-23-2009, 06:15 PM	#11
Mikenyce Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 862 Thanks: 29 Thanked 53 Times in 46 Posts Rep Power: 6	Just got done looking at the PP for the derby contenders. I have to agree with you there Draynay I dont think Win Willy or Summer Bird have any cahnce of hitting the board

04-23-2009, 06:37 PM	#12
hue21998 Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 968 Thanks: 0 Thanked 70 Times in 1 Post Rep Power: 0	mike your supposed to have my back on summer bird lol

04-23-2009, 07:56 PM	#15
hue21998 Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 968 Thanks: 0 Thanked 70 Times in 1 Post Rep Power: 0	I hope nobody has to leave i want to see the pics in the pink dress lol as opposed to the purple vikings hat.

04-24-2009, 06:18 AM	#17
justin13892002 Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 528 Thanks: 0 Thanked 23 Times in 1 Post Rep Power: 6	DRF had a file available showing the PPs of the last 17 Derby winners (since Lil E. Tee in '91). I never usually even see Beyer Speed figures, but in the spirit of making lemonade out of the lemons you have, here goes. 15 of the 17 winners had Beyer Speed figures of 102 or greater. The only exceptions were Giacomo at 95 and Sea Hero at 91. 14 of the 17 had a Beyer of 100 or over in the race previous to the Derby and 13 of the 17 had at least two Beyers over 100 in their past performances. Last year only five horses had a race over 100. Big Brown had two 106's, Gayego had a 103 and a 102, Eight Belles had a 100 and a 99, Z Fortune and Recapture the Glory had 102's. Of course the results were Big Brown, Eight Belles-2nd Denis of Cork,-3rd Tale of Ekati-4th and Recapture(etc) 5th. The other 2 finished 10th and 17th. . This year in the lists of top contenders I can only find DUNKIRK, QUALITY ROAD, FRIESAN FIRE, I WANT REVENGE and PAPA CLEM with last race Beyers at or above 102. West Side Bernie at 101 could be a bubble horse. I Want Revenge and Quality Road are the only horses with 2 Beyers over 100 in 2009. Only Big Brown won with as few as 3 lifetime prep races - his last two routes were 106-106; his first on turf was 90 - so he had 3 route preps. This makes Dunkirk a little suspect because after one 7f race at 77 he has had two routes at 9f the 2nd race at 98 and the most recent at 108. In jms62 Pace parameters post it said that in 9 out of 11 years the data had been kept the winner came from the “PF” column of data. That would mean QUALITY ROAD, WIN WILLY, FRIESAN FIRE, I WANT REVENGE and PIONEER OF THE NILE. I never took statistics but if you have (15/17) x (9/11) = .72 (some math wiz please verify), it looks like among the three dual qualifiers (Bold) you have a 72% chance of getting the winner out of these three. So far the list of entrants to the Derby is not complete, so this info might change.

04-24-2009, 06:22 AM	#18
justin13892002 Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 528 Thanks: 0 Thanked 23 Times in 1 Post Rep Power: 6	That was a post from Bill Lyster on Pace N Cap

04-24-2009, 12:16 PM	#19
hue21998 Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 968 Thanks: 0 Thanked 70 Times in 1 Post Rep Power: 0	Was quality road a dual qualifier?

04-24-2009, 01:01 PM	#20
justin13892002 Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 528 Thanks: 0 Thanked 23 Times in 1 Post Rep Power: 6	Quality Road, I want Revenge and Friesan Fire qualify. If you bet these 3, according to the stats, you have a 72% chance of winning.

04-24-2009, 01:04 PM	#21
hue21998 Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 968 Thanks: 0 Thanked 70 Times in 1 Post Rep Power: 0	ok i just have seen no info about QR being a dual qualifier i dont believe he is

04-27-2009, 06:46 PM	#23
Draynay Banned Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 975 Thanks: 3 Thanked 3 Times in 3 Posts Rep Power: 0	lol....

04-28-2009, 03:16 AM	#24
hue21998 Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 968 Thanks: 0 Thanked 70 Times in 1 Post Rep Power: 0	Here at Horseracingtalk we have our own, A Boy Named Sally