according to Weather.com:


Oaks Day: 60% chance of rain (scattered thunderstorms)

Derby Day: 60% chance of rain (thundershowers)

Always Raining On Our Parade

from Bloodhorse:

As you handicap this year’s Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I), you better ask yourself not only who can get a mile and a quarter, but who can do so on an off track.

Some of this year's contenders have been running on synthetic surfaces and never touched a track listed as sloppy or muddy. That may change May 2 because Churchill Downs has a traditional dirt surface, and the forecast is for rain.

It is expected to rain in Louisville, Ky., on April 30, and the forecast is no better for the weekend. The National Weather Service is predicting a 60% chance of precipitation May 1 (Kentucky Oaks day), and a 60% chance again May 2 (Kentucky Derby day).

There is a 70% chance of showers from 1-7 p.m. April 30 and another strong chance the morning of May 1. The forecast for May 1 also calls for winds of 10-15 m.p.h.

For Kentucky Derby day, the forecast is for thunderstorms with a high temperature in the upper 60s.

Only six of the 20 Derby starters have ever raced on a track listed as other than fast: Desert Party, Flying Private, Friesan Fire, Join in the Dance, Nowhere to Hide, and Papa Clem.

Getting worse. The latest forecast for Saturday now shows an 80% chance of rain, with thunderstorms.

I'm not even in the mood of capping, started breaking down the card yesterday and with all this rain coming it makes me sick. But I will keep plugging away. Looks to me this years derby will be all Cali. I cannot believe the ml that MB posted, this guy is just a horrible race caller and oddsmaker.


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I'm not so sure that John Shireffs will run Zenyatta tomorrow on an off-track.

We all know how good she is, and that she could probably win this one giving them all a 100 yard head-start.

BUT

One Caroline is no slouch, and Shireffs has not much to gain by risking his champion in a
GR-2 in the mud.


I'm in a fantasy stable competition, and have to add Zenyatta to my stable under normal circumstances. Sumthin tells me normal this ain't!!!

I don't think the surface did Jealous Again any favors today.