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Old 02-18-2013, 08:07 AM   #1
John Greenhaw
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picks Southwest Stakes Oaklawn Park
Ky points on the line and Baffert sends in Super 99---who will take tons of action. IMO, I just don't think Super 99 will click off those speedy fractions that he got by with at Santa Anita. Surface at OP is a hell of alot deeper than SA and Super 99 will have plenty of challengers on the front end.

Other than Super 99, the two buzz horses are Always In A Tiz and Big Lute.

Big Lute just may be the real deal and his mud pedigree and one work over a muddy OP surface was eye-catching. Notwithstanding being conditioned by Steve Hobby, I like this one alot. Always In A Tiz will go off 2nd favorite and rightfully so. His closing in the Smarty Jones was impressive and he should love the extra 1/16 distance. Very good chance of track coming up a bit wet today so keep an eye out for track condition. If wet, load up on Big Lute and Always in a Tiz in ex bx.

Here's my suggestions:

Ex Bx 5/6/10 (tiz--99--big lute)

Tri Bx---5/6/10---5/6/10---1/2/4

Super---5/6/10---5/6/10---1/2/4---1/2/4

If muddy?---#10 Big Lute to win, #5 Tiz place
If dry?---#5 Always In a Tiz win over #6 99 and #10 Big Lute.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
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Old 02-18-2013, 08:39 AM   #2
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I'm now hearing that Big Lute is a post-time decision? Word is that owner Lieblong favors waiting for a easy spot next week and then training up to the Rebel. Weather playing no part in this decision. If Big Lute is a sct, go ahead and throw in #3 Will Take Charge, although I don't think he will carry his speed in today's distance the way he did in Smarty Jones. Also throwing in Rosie's mount, #7, the kitten horse who only has a chance for minor rewards if speed comes to a screetching halt.

WTF Super---5---6---1/2/3/4/7---1/2/3/4/7
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Old 02-18-2013, 10:51 AM   #3
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Im liking the #5 Always in a Tiz, John 3rd off layoff.
Good Luck,
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Old 02-18-2013, 01:15 PM   #4
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Obviously, I'm rooting against Will Take Charge and Super 99, as they're listed in the POOL 1 as individual interests. However, Bejarano took off the day to chase the Derby dream, so who knows.

I would love to see a big effort by Tiz or Lute. I won't be betting, just watching.
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Old 02-18-2013, 03:00 PM   #5
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Big lute for me- that maiden breaker looked special to me. I'll put on top over 3,4,5.
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Old 02-18-2013, 03:19 PM   #6
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Obviously, I'm rooting against Will Take Charge and Super 99, as they're listed in the POOL 1 as individual interests. However, Bejarano took off the day to chase the Derby dream, so who knows.

I would love to see a big effort by Tiz or Lute. I won't be betting, just watching.


Well boys. Southern California gots them horses.
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Old 02-18-2013, 05:57 PM   #7
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I waited until post time to make my play. Had $72 in a super and it was ok on the top, but a little off on the rest!!!!

The downpour right before the race compacted the dirt and made the condition sloppy-fast. We don't know yet what Super 99 will do on a deep dry dirt track, but we sure know he likes the off-going! He will have at least one more start before Ky Derby, and you would have to think that Baffert will come back to Hot Springs where spring rains are likely. Can't remember the last time I saw a horse take to the off-going like he did today. If the forecast for Louisville is rain for first saturday in May, I'm all in!

Nor sure about Always in a Tiz and Big Lute. They both packed it in after chasing 99 for 7furlongs. Trainers could just say to draw a line thru the race based on wet conditions, but neither looked like they wanted to go on past the mile mark as both retreated rapidly.
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Old 02-18-2013, 10:07 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by John Greenhaw View Post
I waited until post time to make my play. Had $72 in a super and it was ok on the top, but a little off on the rest!!!!

The downpour right before the race compacted the dirt and made the condition sloppy-fast. We don't know yet what Super 99 will do on a deep dry dirt track, but we sure know he likes the off-going! He will have at least one more start before Ky Derby, and you would have to think that Baffert will come back to Hot Springs where spring rains are likely. Can't remember the last time I saw a horse take to the off-going like he did today. If the forecast for Louisville is rain for first saturday in May, I'm all in!

Nor sure about Always in a Tiz and Big Lute. They both packed it in after chasing 99 for 7furlongs. Trainers could just say to draw a line thru the race based on wet conditions, but neither looked like they wanted to go on past the mile mark as both retreated rapidly.

Agree with you John on the other two that stopped like rocks. I was on Always In A Tiz and was very disappointed in his effort. I know it was a slop track but that was very impressive race for Super Nintey Nice off a career best just 17 days go and coming in from the Left Coast. It looks as we have some speed signed up for the Derby if these 3 get in the gate on the First Saturday In May (Oxbow, Super Ninety Nine, and Verranzo).
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