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Old 10-06-2012, 09:33 AM   #1
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Santa Anita - Race 8

#7 Reneesgotzip (6/1 ml)

Always been a big fan of this exceptionally speedy filly, who ran into just a bit of distance difficulty in her two Grade 1 starts (both routes), before wisely being turned back into sprint distances with an eye towards the Breeders Cup. Looks like they may be testing the waters for an attempt at the BC Sprint (rather than the Filly & Mare Sprint at 7 furlongs), as she jumps into the deep water here, not only facing males for the first time, but also facing last year's BC Sprint winner (and current division leader) Amazombie. The thing is though, she looks every bit as fast as Amazombie, at least judging by their recent Del Mar starts, which came at the same distance with very similar track variants. Also worth noting here, Amazombie is simply prepping for his BC Sprint defense (while coming off a layoff), while Reneesgotzip's connections figure to be taking this race a bit more seriously. She's also absolutely the speed of the race, and should get loose early while forcing the boys to play catch-up. And this filly won't be easily caught at this 6-furlong distance, you can count on that. Further, she owns an impressive win over the Santa Anita dirt (her largest margin of victory, in fact), with today's rider Nakatani in the irons for that race. She also looked extremely sharp in both of her route tries over this surface; she just got a little tired late. So we know the surface switch will be no problem. Very tough spot for her today, obviously, but Amazombie will be overbet based on his reputation while almost assuredly not being 100% cranked for this race, and additionally, Reneesgotzip figures to be overlooked a bit here just based on the fact that she's a 3yo filly jumping up to face a very strong field of older males. Great value here on a very fast horse who has a legitimate shot at wiring the field today.

HRT record:

89 for 327 (27%)

$763.80 mutuels ($8.58 avg)



PS - Using her in ShowVivor as well....
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Old 10-06-2012, 10:52 AM   #2
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Santa Anita - Race 8

#7 Reneesgotzip (6/1 ml)

Always been a big fan of this exceptionally speedy filly, who ran into just a bit of distance difficulty in her two Grade 1 starts (both routes), before wisely being turned back into sprint distances with an eye towards the Breeders Cup. Looks like they may be testing the waters for an attempt at the BC Sprint (rather than the Filly & Mare Sprint at 7 furlongs), as she jumps into the deep water here, not only facing males for the first time, but also facing last year's BC Sprint winner (and current division leader) Amazombie. The thing is though, she looks every bit as fast as Amazombie, at least judging by their recent Del Mar starts, which came at the same distance with very similar track variants. Also worth noting here, Amazombie is simply prepping for his BC Sprint defense (while coming off a layoff), while Reneesgotzip's connections figure to be taking this race a bit more seriously. She's also absolutely the speed of the race, and should get loose early while forcing the boys to play catch-up. And this filly won't be easily caught at this 6-furlong distance, you can count on that. Further, she owns an impressive win over the Santa Anita dirt (her largest margin of victory, in fact), with today's rider Nakatani in the irons for that race. She also looked extremely sharp in both of her route tries over this surface; she just got a little tired late. So we know the surface switch will be no problem. Very tough spot for her today, obviously, but Amazombie will be overbet based on his reputation while almost assuredly not being 100% cranked for this race, and additionally, Reneesgotzip figures to be overlooked a bit here just based on the fact that she's a 3yo filly jumping up to face a very strong field of older males. Great value here on a very fast horse who has a legitimate shot at wiring the field today.

HRT record:

89 for 327 (27%)

$763.80 mutuels ($8.58 avg)



PS - Using her in ShowVivor as well....
Don't do it. Please.

I assure you Amazombie is cranked, he still hasn't won a WIN AND YOU'RE IN. The connections want that, and the financial bonus (these guys aren't rich). My only worry about AMAZOMBIE is closing into this track profile.

The connections have already told me CASTLETOWN will be hell bent for the lead. Up and comer JIMMY CREED is gonna send too.

Look, I'll give you this - Renee is LEGIT FAST, and the track plays to that, but these are the the big boys.

Get my plate of crow ready just in case.
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Old 10-06-2012, 12:08 PM   #3
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Thanks for the heads-up, but i'm not sure how much difference it'll make even if Amazombie is at full strength today. He'll be spotting her some ground, no doubt, and i do think she'll be very tough to run down (by anybody) over this surface and distance. Castletown will be sent, that's obvious (he has no other choice, especially from the inside), but he's simply not as fast as the filly and i don't think he'll be able to keep up. Maybe she goes too fast early and tires late, as some very talented older horses take aim at her, but maybe she keeps right on going. She does make a habit out of that, at least at sprint distances she does. I maintain that she's a legitimate upset threat in this race; moreso than the two Bafferts or Camp Victory or Jimmy Creed, i think (hard to like Jimmy Creed in this spot, as he'd need to fire a career best while turning back into much faster fractions than he's ever contested). We shall see. At the price i'll be getting, i don't see how i can pass on her. I think it's a very good spot, all things considered.
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Old 10-06-2012, 04:42 PM   #4
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I'm excited regardless, and I've managed to jinx everything today, but we need Amazombie in this spot.
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Old 10-06-2012, 04:53 PM   #5
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What can I say DC?

I got a bad ride, you got fucked by an owner who should have gone in the ALWN2X race, but wanted to ruin this one. Mike Smith rode Amazombie like he was Secretariat, he knows that MF'r needs a target.

19 second first quarter?
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Old 10-06-2012, 05:40 PM   #6
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What can I say DC?

I got a bad ride, you got fucked by an owner who should have gone in the ALWN2X race, but wanted to ruin this one. Mike Smith rode Amazombie like he was Secretariat, he knows that MF'r needs a target.

19 second first quarter?
Here's the only upside I can find. When exchange wagering arrives, and we have info that somebody is hell bent on ruining a race, we can lay accordingly.
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Old 10-07-2012, 11:01 AM   #7
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I was pretty shocked that Reneesgotzip ran that poorly. No surprise that she lost, but she failed to make the early lead and then got swallowed up on the turn for home??? Very strange....
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Old 10-07-2012, 03:51 PM   #8
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I was pretty shocked that Reneesgotzip ran that poorly. No surprise that she lost, but she failed to make the early lead and then got swallowed up on the turn for home??? Very strange....
Yeah, did not look right. I see a lot of faders though on some of the longer priced horses. Bad racing strategy by the jockey?
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