Rebel Stakes play from DiscreetPicks.com

DiscreetCat · 03-19-2011, 11:12 AM

Oaklawn - Race 10

#6 The Factor (2/1 ml)

Short morning-line here, but i think there's a pretty decent chance The Factor won't go favored in this race, as many have long been questioning his ability to stretch out, and will almost certainly be trying to beat him here. Myself, i was open to that idea, but in looking at the race on paper, i really can't get past this colt. We all know he's fast and talented, we've known that for a while, and it doesn't look to me as if he'll receive much pressure on the front end today. It should also be noted that, even though The Factor is stretching out here, the two-turn fractions he'll be setting (particularly if he is indeed alone on the lead) will be much softer than what he's accustomed to. With those factors in mind (pardon the pun), it's highly conceivable that he'll have plenty of gas left in the tank for the stretch drive. Also, be aware that Baffert had a lot of success shipping 3yo colts into Oaklawn last year, winning the Southwest with Conveyance (another speedy frontrunner, btw), and of course winning the Rebel with Lookin at Lucky.* Also, Baffert had previously indicated that he was pointing The Factor to the Sunland Park Derby, which is run over a speed-favoring surface, would undoubtedly have had a softer field, and carried a purse of $800,000. The fact he's been re-routed to the Rebel probably indicates a recent boost in Baffert's confidence level regarding The Factor's chances of stretching out successfully. Otherwise, why not stick to softer competition with a much larger purse? And lastly, don't forget The Factor was very much flattered last weekend (as was Sway Away) when Premier Pegasus destroyed the San Felipe field by open lengths. Lots to like here, and should be very playable.

HRT record:

77 for 291 (26.5%)

$651.00 mutuels ($8.45 avg)

rayphil · 03-19-2011, 12:12 PM

thats my play also.....baffert

Horsin~Aro · 03-19-2011, 02:07 PM

We are doing an Exacta and a Tri in this race
Ex Box 2,6 with 2,6,9,13
Tri 2,6 with 2,6,5 with 2,6,5,9,13

dave1950 · 03-19-2011, 02:56 PM

the fact that there is no rabbit in here puts the onus on the jocks to rate their horses accordingly.
I like the 2 possibly boxing the 2-6-9
good luck

PS oh hi all! my first post here

Horsin~Aro · 03-19-2011, 03:21 PM

The Factor is about as "Rabbit" as you can get.

dave1950 · 03-19-2011, 03:31 PM

good point!

Horsin~Aro · 03-19-2011, 04:12 PM

Pulled off the table with Alternation scratch

Horsin~Aro · 03-19-2011, 04:21 PM

Very nice extra gear there. Has to get some respect off that run.

fbwinners · 03-19-2011, 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Horsin~Aro

Very nice extra gear there. Has to get some respect off that run.

Agree, 6 seconds and change at the end is pretty impresive and broke in a tangle at the start.

fb

DiscreetCat · 03-20-2011, 01:52 AM

The Factor wins by open lengths @ $4.80

03-19-2011, 11:12 AM	#1
DiscreetCat Moderator Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 6,134 Thanks: 75 Thanked 195 Times in 164 Posts Rep Power: 18	Rebel Stakes play from DiscreetPicks.com Oaklawn - Race 10 #6 The Factor (2/1 ml) Short morning-line here, but i think there's a pretty decent chance The Factor won't go favored in this race, as many have long been questioning his ability to stretch out, and will almost certainly be trying to beat him here. Myself, i was open to that idea, but in looking at the race on paper, i really can't get past this colt. We all know he's fast and talented, we've known that for a while, and it doesn't look to me as if he'll receive much pressure on the front end today. It should also be noted that, even though The Factor is stretching out here, the two-turn fractions he'll be setting (particularly if he is indeed alone on the lead) will be much softer than what he's accustomed to. With those factors in mind (pardon the pun), it's highly conceivable that he'll have plenty of gas left in the tank for the stretch drive. Also, be aware that Baffert had a lot of success shipping 3yo colts into Oaklawn last year, winning the Southwest with Conveyance (another speedy frontrunner, btw), and of course winning the Rebel with Lookin at Lucky.* Also, Baffert had previously indicated that he was pointing The Factor to the Sunland Park Derby, which is run over a speed-favoring surface, would undoubtedly have had a softer field, and carried a purse of $800,000. The fact he's been re-routed to the Rebel probably indicates a recent boost in Baffert's confidence level regarding The Factor's chances of stretching out successfully. Otherwise, why not stick to softer competition with a much larger purse? And lastly, don't forget The Factor was very much flattered last weekend (as was Sway Away) when Premier Pegasus destroyed the San Felipe field by open lengths. Lots to like here, and should be very playable. HRT record: 77 for 291 (26.5%) $651.00 mutuels ($8.45 avg) __________________ www.DiscreetPicks.com

03-19-2011, 12:12 PM	#2
rayphil Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: Baltimore,Md. Posts: 1,906 Thanks: 78 Thanked 53 Times in 47 Posts Rep Power: 8	thats my play also.....baffert __________________ philsthelight@yahoo.com

03-20-2011, 01:52 AM	#10
DiscreetCat Moderator Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 6,134 Thanks: 75 Thanked 195 Times in 164 Posts Rep Power: 18	The Factor wins by open lengths @ $4.80 __________________ www.DiscreetPicks.com

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03-19-2011, 02:07 PM	#3
Horsin~Aro Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 955 Thanks: 98 Thanked 158 Times in 146 Posts Rep Power: 4	We are doing an Exacta and a Tri in this race Ex Box 2,6 with 2,6,9,13 Tri 2,6 with 2,6,5 with 2,6,5,9,13

03-19-2011, 02:56 PM	#4
dave1950 Junior Member Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 7 Thanks: 1 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts Rep Power: 0	the fact that there is no rabbit in here puts the onus on the jocks to rate their horses accordingly. I like the 2 possibly boxing the 2-6-9 good luck PS oh hi all! my first post here

03-19-2011, 03:21 PM	#5
Horsin~Aro Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 955 Thanks: 98 Thanked 158 Times in 146 Posts Rep Power: 4	The Factor is about as "Rabbit" as you can get.

03-19-2011, 03:31 PM	#6
dave1950 Junior Member Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 7 Thanks: 1 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts Rep Power: 0	good point!

03-19-2011, 04:12 PM	#7
Horsin~Aro Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 955 Thanks: 98 Thanked 158 Times in 146 Posts Rep Power: 4	Pulled off the table with Alternation scratch

03-19-2011, 04:21 PM	#8
Horsin~Aro Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 955 Thanks: 98 Thanked 158 Times in 146 Posts Rep Power: 4	Very nice extra gear there. Has to get some respect off that run.