from Daily Racing Form:

Quality Road's Beyer Figure upgraded

By Andrew Beyer

Quality Road's winning Beyer Speed Figure in the Florida Derby has been substantially upgraded - from 103 to 111. The change was made as part of an overall revision of the 1 1/8-mile races at Gulfstream Park.

"The figure for the Florida Derby looked low," Andew Beyer said, "and on the previous day, the Bonnie Miss Stakes also [at 1 1/8 miles] came up about 10 points slower than we would have expected. As we reviewed other races, we concluded there had been a change in the historic relationship between times at 1 1/8 miles and other distances at Gulfstream. We don't know why, but we did know that many of the 1 1/8-mile figures had to be increased."

Quality Road's 111, coming after the 113 he had earned in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, certifies his status as one of the top candidates for the Kentucky Derby. The last six runnings of the Derby have been won with figures of 111 or less. Dunkirk, second-place finisher in the Florida Derby, earned a figure of 108, which would make him a viable contender, too.

Originally Posted by DiscreetCat

from Daily Racing Form:

Quality Road's Beyer Figure upgraded

By Andrew Beyer

Quality Road's winning Beyer Speed Figure in the Florida Derby has been substantially upgraded - from 103 to 111. The change was made as part of an overall revision of the 1 1/8-mile races at Gulfstream Park.

"The figure for the Florida Derby looked low," Andew Beyer said, "and on the previous day, the Bonnie Miss Stakes also [at 1 1/8 miles] came up about 10 points slower than we would have expected. As we reviewed other races, we concluded there had been a change in the historic relationship between times at 1 1/8 miles and other distances at Gulfstream. We don't know why, but we did know that many of the 1 1/8-mile figures had to be increased."

Quality Road's 111, coming after the 113 he had earned in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, certifies his status as one of the top candidates for the Kentucky Derby. The last six runnings of the Derby have been won with figures of 111 or less. Dunkirk, second-place finisher in the Florida Derby, earned a figure of 108, which would make him a viable contender, too.

Now is the time for everyone to look at Quality Roads last 2 races LOOK at the Beyer figures and figure out this is your Derby winner. To pick another horse would seem a little crazy unless IWF can freak again but I think Imperial Council has his number. Quality Road is peaking at the right time.

A win by Quality Road in the Derby would suit me just fine. But I would much rather see a certain gray horse draped in roses.

Its hard for me to imagine any horse beating Quality Road and knowing that he will only improve next time out going two turns tells me looking elsewhere is not reality. If Quality shows up like his last two he is in a league by himself.

I like him also Draynay, but remember that ANY horse can get beat. Especially in the Derby. It's a madhouse out there.

Originally Posted by DiscreetCat

I like him also Draynay, but remember that ANY horse can get beat. Especially in the Derby. It's a madhouse out there.

Quality Road has already seen 12 and 13 horse fields. Another 7 that will be behind him anyway at the quarter pole will not matter. His forward speed means he will only be dealing with 3 or 4 horses and what is behind him will not matter.

You really can't make a case for another horse to beat Quality Road. His 111 Beyer and track record first time at two turns was very impressive and trying two turns again he should improve and ANY improvement leaves out every horse in the field.

I think he is a big time key horse for exotics, he reminds me of my favorite horse Smarty Jones.


FB

You're right that most of the field figures to be behind him. The potential problem for him is the mad scramble for early position, as he might have to use too much early energy to get himself a good spot by the time they hit the first turn. Not just a problem for Quality Road, but also The Pamplemousse, I Want Revenge, and the other forwardly-placed types. Take a look at Big Brown last year. He was coming off a front-running win in the Florida Derby, and was generally considered the quickest horse in the race, but i think he was running 5th or so in the early going. It ended up working out fine for him, but he also happened to be sitting in the clear. That's not always gonna be the case with 20 horses coming out of the gate; it can get pretty damn crowded out there. Let's say he draws a far-inside post for example. They would likely have to gun him early in order to avoid getting swallowed up in traffic. You might not think the early-energy thing isa big deal, but keep in mind the race is 1 1/4 miles, and none of these horses have ever run that far before. Throw in some traffic, and it starts getting really dicey. Not to mention the 100,000 screaming people that have been known to spook a horse or two.