Longshots I like at Del Mar today

choons81 · 08-02-2007, 10:36 AM

My reasoning for these horses being longshots is that they all have early speed. I have noticed since the start of the Del Mar meet that early speed has not held onto the lead coming out of the final turn. The final turn is usually where the speed dies and closers take over. Like any horse with early speed you expect them to get out and get away from the pack, but this usually does not hold true, therefore the higher than normal odds. These are just preliminary horses that I am looking at today since there are other intangibles such as jockey/trainer combo as well as Horses going from Sprint to Route and vice-versa. Anyways to make a long story short, these are shots that I will throw into exotics today at Del Mar. Any feedback would be appreciated.

GL and good racing

R3
#5 AFRICAN TREASURE - Gallagher has been nails with two year olds, winning at a 20 percent rate. Fits well here - the trainer has the credentials with younger horses.

R4
#2 ROYAL ALBERT - Is a contender - given the recent 88 Equibase Speed Figure.
#7 SCOTTY JONES - Contender based on figures recorded lately under today's conditions.

R5
#4 JUMP ROPE GIRL - She looks really good in this slot - I expect will be the early leader. She has really strong class figures, averaging 90.

R6
#2 TRANQUILO - One of the best speed figs of the field in his last competition.

DiscreetCat · 08-02-2007, 11:36 AM

Regarding Race 3, Gallagher very rarely wins with firsters. Not really a guy you wanna back in that situation. Going a bit further, African Treausure worked heads-up from the gate with Lotta Texas Charm on July 20, and that one ran poorly in Race 3 yesterday.

The two main threats appear to be Cupid's Kitty and Princess Traci, each of whom come in with sharp drills over the polytrack and appear set to run well.

choons81 · 08-02-2007, 11:40 AM

unless I just noticed, but #5 African Treasure is a scratch...LOL

2W2P2S · 08-02-2007, 11:52 AM

Well, glad to see we are all on the same page. African Treasure will scratch...... Macho Uno and Harlan's Holiday have been extremely impressive freshman sires. Chica Una not training well, so I'll turn my attention to Holiday Cruise. Harlan's Holiday has already produce 7 juvenille winners (37%) and a juvenille stakes winner. Autrey does well enough with debuting MDN Clmer's and 2YO's, and the fact he shipped this one in w/out working on the track in a claiming race adds more interest for me. Most, if not all , of his other runners have had a work over the track. Could be hiding this one. At 9/2 M/L may be the value of the race.

choons81 · 08-02-2007, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2W2P2S

Well, glad to see we are all on the same page. African Treasure will scratch...... Macho Uno and Harlan's Holiday have been extremely impressive freshman sires. Chica Una not training well, so I'll turn my attention to Holiday Cruise. Harlan's Holiday has already produce 7 juvenille winners (37%) and a juvenille stakes winner. Autrey does well enough with debuting MDN Clmer's and 2YO's, and the fact he shipped this one in w/out working on the track in a claiming race adds more interest for me. Most, if not all , of his other runners have had a work over the track. Could be hiding this one. At 9/2 M/L may be the value of the race.

In addition I see that Holiday Cruise is adding First Time Lasix today.

08-02-2007, 10:36 AM	#1
choons81 Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: @ Hollywood Park Posts: 765 Thanks: 8 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts Rep Power: 6	Longshots I like at Del Mar today My reasoning for these horses being longshots is that they all have early speed. I have noticed since the start of the Del Mar meet that early speed has not held onto the lead coming out of the final turn. The final turn is usually where the speed dies and closers take over. Like any horse with early speed you expect them to get out and get away from the pack, but this usually does not hold true, therefore the higher than normal odds. These are just preliminary horses that I am looking at today since there are other intangibles such as jockey/trainer combo as well as Horses going from Sprint to Route and vice-versa. Anyways to make a long story short, these are shots that I will throw into exotics today at Del Mar. Any feedback would be appreciated. GL and good racing R3 #5 AFRICAN TREASURE - Gallagher has been nails with two year olds, winning at a 20 percent rate. Fits well here - the trainer has the credentials with younger horses. R4 #2 ROYAL ALBERT - Is a contender - given the recent 88 Equibase Speed Figure. #7 SCOTTY JONES - Contender based on figures recorded lately under today's conditions. R5 #4 JUMP ROPE GIRL - She looks really good in this slot - I expect will be the early leader. She has really strong class figures, averaging 90. R6 #2 TRANQUILO - One of the best speed figs of the field in his last competition.

08-02-2007, 11:40 AM	#3
choons81 Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: @ Hollywood Park Posts: 765 Thanks: 8 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts Rep Power: 6	LOL the connections heard you unless I just noticed, but #5 African Treasure is a scratch...LOL

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08-02-2007, 11:36 AM	#2
DiscreetCat Moderator Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 6,130 Thanks: 75 Thanked 195 Times in 164 Posts Rep Power: 18	Regarding Race 3, Gallagher very rarely wins with firsters. Not really a guy you wanna back in that situation. Going a bit further, African Treausure worked heads-up from the gate with Lotta Texas Charm on July 20, and that one ran poorly in Race 3 yesterday. The two main threats appear to be Cupid's Kitty and Princess Traci, each of whom come in with sharp drills over the polytrack and appear set to run well.

08-02-2007, 11:52 AM	#4
2W2P2S Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: San Clemente, CA Posts: 201 Thanks: 0 Thanked 10 Times in 6 Posts Rep Power: 5	Well, glad to see we are all on the same page. African Treasure will scratch...... Macho Uno and Harlan's Holiday have been extremely impressive freshman sires. Chica Una not training well, so I'll turn my attention to Holiday Cruise. Harlan's Holiday has already produce 7 juvenille winners (37%) and a juvenille stakes winner. Autrey does well enough with debuting MDN Clmer's and 2YO's, and the fact he shipped this one in w/out working on the track in a claiming race adds more interest for me. Most, if not all , of his other runners have had a work over the track. Could be hiding this one. At 9/2 M/L may be the value of the race.