Houdini suggested that we start a Key Race thread, and i think that's a pretty good idea. I'm curious though as to how you guys keep track of these? I know that myself, i used to buy the charts once-a-week (now called the DRF Simulcast Weekly, btw), and i would physically go back and circle the name of every winning horse on the SoCal circuit in the chart of that horse's previous race. Then, when you see race starting to develop multiple circles, you know that it's a key race. Problem is, after i got a computer and started doing most of my handicapping online, i stopped doing that.

So my question is, what kind of methods (if any) do you guys use to identify key races? Myself, i'm going mostly by recollection (which is often helped by seeing the list of horses on the side-panel of the video replays, btw). That, and of course the horse's name in italics in the Racing Form PP's (which only covers the first three finishers, of course).

Anyway, whoever spots a key race (or more to the point, a developing key race), let's start posting it here. It certainly can't hurt.

May i be the first to state the obivious,any horses exiting the UNCLE SAM MSW RACE,and THE FACTOR MSW.Keep in mind horses dont have to run good good to exit key races.Some of the value comes in horses who finish off the board and may have done liitle running.Key races also maybe horses exiting a fast race.Thank you DC for posting the KR thread.

The key (pardon the pun) to spotting key races is spotting them before multiple winners or competetive runners come out of them. By that time, everyone has labeled it as a "key" race, and a lot of times value has diminished.

I have a section of my handicapping notes dedicated to key races. And these are entered after a race I feel has the potential to be key, and then is updated as runners come out of that race. What I look for and how races hit that list:

*There has to be at least some of the horses showing PP's
*A race gets entered in my notes if horses that have been running competetively at the level get whipped in the race. Ex: let's say in a MdnAlw race a runner has been running at a 6F-7F distance for a few races and has finished within 1-4 lengths of the winner in all of his races and ITM or just out in those races. Suddenly, in the same condition, he is absolutely smoked by the field and finishes much further back. This race would immediately get entered as a high potential key race (I just like to call them races above the level). He was competetive in the condition against other fields, smoked by this one
*Same thing for finding races that are way harder than the condition and finding runners coming out of them.........if a horse(s) is/are competing against $16K claimers as an example, and running competetively, then this horse/horses are smoked in a race under the same condition, great chance that race was much better than the level and will be key coming out of.
*Obviously, if it's numerous runners in the race that were competetive previously at the level, and finish up the track in the race, the greater the probability that race will be live for the future.
*I also use it to find "dud" races...........horses running at the same level and running terribly all of a sudden run competetive in a race. Good chance it was a weak race for the level and top finishing horses will be overbet in their next starts.

Wouldn't the race at Aqueduct on December 18th that Dr. Disco hit the fence and still won running one tick off track record be a key race? We had Fulton Street who ran 3rd. Old Guys Rule ran a good race placed 2nd.

Could turn into one, for sure. Dr. Disco was the only horse in the race who had run before though; the rest were all first-time starters. And of course, none of the horses have run back yet. We'll just have to keep an eye on it.

Originally Posted by Bruno2

Wouldn't the race at Aqueduct on December 18th that Dr. Disco hit the fence and still won running one tick off track record be a key race? We had Fulton Street who ran 3rd. Old Guys Rule ran a good race placed 2nd.

I generally handicap the opposite. When a horse has a bunch of trouble and still wins I of course upgrade the horse, but downgrade the field.

Dr. Disco didn't have a lot of trouble. In fact, he had next-to-none. He was an even-money favorite who went straight to the front and led wire-to-wire.

He did appear to lug in and brush the rail coming off the turn, but it barely slowed him down at all. In fact, when you watch the head-on replay, it's unclear whether he even touched the rail at all (though it certainly looked like it on the pan shot).

Also, the race was exceptionally fast for a maiden sprint on the inner track, with fractions of 22.41, 45.54, 57.48, and 103.87.

The winner of a key race is entered in Race 2 @ Gulfstream today. That would be Equestrio, who beat Crystal Moment and Candyman E when last seen at Churchill Downs in November. Second-place finisher Crystal Moment came out of that race to win, and third-place finisher Candyman E just won on yesterday's card.

Btw, Fulton Street (mentioned above by Bruno2) came back to win @ Aqueduct today, paying $15.20

The key race thread officiall kicks off with Equestrio winning today at Gulfstream.

Equistrio races 6 lengths back off a zippy pace, makes a sweeping move around the turn, and digs in deep to win by 1/2 length.

$4.60 $3.00 $2.60

Originally Posted by DiscreetCat

The winner of a key race is entered in Race 2 @ Gulfstream today. That would be Equestrio, who beat Crystal Moment and Candyman E when last seen at Churchill Downs in November. Second-place finisher Crystal Moment came out of that race to win, and third-place finisher Candyman E just won on yesterday's card.

Btw, Fulton Street (mentioned above by Bruno2) came back to win @ Aqueduct today, paying $15.20

Also he was scratched yesterday for this softer spot.


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Gulfstream race 6-#1 Artful Run exits the ArchArchArch MSW race !

Originally Posted by Houdini

Gulfstream race 6-#1 Artful Run exits the ArchArchArch MSW race !

Won paid $7

Originally Posted by Houdini

May i be the first to state the obivious,any horses exiting the UNCLE SAM MSW RACE,and THE FACTOR MSW.Keep in mind horses dont have to run good good to exit key races.Some of the value comes in horses who finish off the board and may have done liitle running.Key races also maybe horses exiting a fast race.Thank you DC for posting the KR thread.

As pointed out in another thread 1 horse has exited the The Factor race and came back won.

Keep an eye on Fullbridled's Sis in Race 6 @ Santa Anita today. She ran second in a Dec 9 race from which the winner and third-place finisher each returned to win.

Big, rangy long-legged daughter of Unbridled Song flashed speed and looked good running down the hill, then hit the dirt crossover and came to a complete stop. No excuses, and 6 1/2 on turf is hardly a test. My take on these Unbridled Song off-spring is that they are very fast, but have a serious problem with soundness. May want to watch this one next out and keep an eye on works before putting money on again.

Sorry about the mis-information above, as she is out of Buddah, who was out of Unbridled Song. Same shit, next generation

Gulfstream 7th race the winner exited a key race-Uncle Mo Debut-Free Entry paid $7.00

Cook Inlet out of The Factor race on 3 Feb Santa Anita R6 #6 MSW.

Houston Harbor is also in that race. He ran 2nd.

Don't forget guys Houston Harbor and Cook Inlet are both running today at SA. Both out of The Factor race, coming in 2nd an 3rd. That will be my $20 exacta box.

Would you believe it ? They sch both of them. Well they left the #2 who just so happens to come out of that race as well. Wire to wire is my thoughts.

I was looking at Houston Harbor a good little bit, but i wasn't crazy about his extreme outside post-draw with the race starting close to the turn. Thought he might've had to use too much early energy. Who knows, maybe that's why they scratched him.

Incidentally, my pick in the 7th (C Tizz Run) was scratched as well.

The #2 Red Sharp Humor Had the race won, till Gomez crowded and bang him nearly into the fence at the top of the strech. He looked beat losing a 3/4's of a length when he came back up the fence only to get nostraled at the wire by the favorite. I saw the finish in slow motion an still can't see why he didn't get the photo.

Cinfront...so You Know...they Take 3 Pictures At The Finish....there Can Be Very Little 'spread' At Times.......old Days...some Tracks 'shaded' The Photo's