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Old 01-27-2013, 09:18 AM   #1
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Gulfstream - Race 6

#10 How Cheeky (12/1 ml)

Interesting longshot here. First though, i must mention that i was all set to give out #2 Tanzspiel (4/1 ml) in this race, as i always pay extra attention to any Roger Attfield maidens going two turns on grass @ Gulfstream, and i'm impressed that she was able to run third in her debut despite breaking from the 11-hole. As such, i made sure to check out that replay, and indeed, she showed a very nice turn-of-foot approaching the turn while looping around the field to take third into the lane (while proceeding to finish evenly behind the winner). What also caught my eye however is that her rider that day (John Velazquez) is apparently jumping off this strong contender in order to ride this longshot How Cheeky. Now, i say "apparently" because it's quite possible that Attfield decided to make a jockey switch to Rosario here, but considering that Rosario has never ridden for Attfield before (as far as i can tell), coupled with the fact that Velazquez is obviously a top rider himself, knows the filly and rode her quite well last time out, i have to suspect that this is Velazquez's call. So, upon loking more closely at How Cheeky, i noticed that her last workout came heads-up (on grass) with Play It Loud, who was a very impressive 4-length winner for this barn back on New Year's Day, with none other than (you guessed it) John Velazquez in the irons. Her previous work came solo (or so it seems), but the next-fastest worker that day was a nondescript trainee from this same barn, so i suspect that drill was in company also, and How Cheeky just outworked the other horse (thus getting the faster time). Also worth mentioning, trainer Nihei has had some definite success with young turf horses, not just Play It Loud but also Draw Two (entered and scratched yesterday, btw) and the stakes horse Regalo Mia. So this kind of race is basically right up her alley. As for the terrible-on-paper debut run that How Cheeky is showing, i think it's a throwout, because she was checked sharply right after leaving the gate in that race to drop back to last, and also the race was run over a rain-softened course that she may not have liked to begin with. Fully believe she's much better than she got to show in that race, and it seems as if Velazquez may be sharing that opinion. Should be a big price here, and it will not be a surprise if she runs well. Would recommend betting win/place on this one, and i'll also be playing a small exacta box with the afore-mentioned Tanzspiel. Good luck with this one; could be nice.

HRT record:

89 for 334 (27%)

$763.80 mutuels ($8.56 avg)
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Old 01-27-2013, 12:58 PM   #2
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Showed a bit of tactical speed early, but was unable to keep pace. Tanzspiel didn't show much either, which i found much more surprising.
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