Hollywood - Race 5

#1 Strawberry Tart (4/1 ml)

Kind of a good news/bad news situation here, but considering the price i think the good news outweighs the bad. This comebacking stakes horse looked absolutely sensational in her only previous start over tonight's 6-furlong turf layout, taking off like a rocketship in the straightaway to blow past the field and win going away. Also of note is that that race happened to come at night, under the lights, same as this one will (and i'm guessing her being entered on a Friday night may not be a coincidence here). She also won her next start, which also came at night on the Hollywood turf course. Going a bit further, note the return of Martin Garcia here, who is a nose away from being 3-for-4 on this filly, and was on board for that huge performance over the layout that i mentioned. Has reportedly been training well for her return, and the long layoff doesn't seem to be much of an issue considering that she previously won by 14 lengths coming off an even longer layoff. I fully expect a strong effort from this filly tonight. So wait, where's the bad news, right? Well, it has nothing to do with Strawberry Tart, just the fact that the 5/2 ml favorite here (Unzip Me) owns what appears to be a major pace advantage. She's also previously gone wire-to-wire over this course, and in fact has led wire-to-wire while winning her last 4 starts in a row, the last couple over some pretty solid stakes fields. That's a big problem, one that Strawberry Tart might not be able to overcome here. I do however think that Strawberry Tart can run her down if she's able to reproduce her previous start over the course, and while very difficult, i think it's certainly possible given the very similar conditions that i mentioned. And Unzip Me figures to get hammered at the windows here, meaning that Strawberry Tart should start at an inflated price, especially when you consider that course specialist Dotsy Jean (4-for-5 over this layout, including a win over Unzip Me) will undoubtedly take a lot of money as well. Just think there's going to be a lot of value on Strawberry Tart here. I would also consider using her in an exacta behind Unzip Me, in case she runs up behind her for second, which could very well happen here.

HRT record:

68 for 249 (27%)

$585.20 mutuels ($8.61 avg)

I see things the complete opposite. Not your handicapping of the race, but where the value is going to lie..........I believe #1 Strawberry Tart is the horse that gets pounded at the windows tonight, far below the 4/1 ML allowing for value on Unzip Me. I believe it's between these 2, but given the fact I may see 2/1 on Unzip Me because of how much I believe will be bet on Strawberry Tart, that will be tough to pass on.

I'm on Minute Limit in this race. Should be a good one!

It looks to me Strawberry Tart has the speed to lead if she wants to I imagine she will be running no worse than 3rd down the backstretch which will surprise a lot of people, I think she has a good shot here.

Originally Posted by 2W2P2S

I see things the complete opposite. Not your handicapping of the race, but where the value is going to lie..........I believe #1 Strawberry Tart is the horse that gets pounded at the windows tonight, far below the 4/1 ML allowing for value on Unzip Me. I believe it's between these 2, but given the fact I may see 2/1 on Unzip Me because of how much I believe will be bet on Strawberry Tart, that will be tough to pass on.

Completely disagree. Unzip Me, IMO, is going to get crushed at the windows. Anything over 8/5 would shock me. I personally like Annihilation here, as I liked the way he made up ground last start when things weren't really falling his way.
Win on Annihilation and Strawberry Tart. Exacta box them w. Unzip me.

Yep getting pounded less than even money. I am all over the #3 at 12-1 right now.... that is great value

Absolutely no pace whatsoever. Let Unzip Me run a 46 and chance first half. No chance for Annihilation or Strawberry running from last two. Nice call on Minute to Limit though, I believe he won the photo for second. Hope you had exacta and place money.

Yeah I had across the board. If there was a little more pace I think he may have gotten there, but the 6 was way to easy on the front end.

Great prices for the ex and tri if you put it together though.

Looked like Strawberry Tart launched a pretty strong rally into the turn and was kicking on well in the stretch, but Unzip Me just wasn't gonna get caught tonight. Certainly not from Strawberry Tart, who had spotted her 10 lengths on the backstretch. Sometimes i wonder what those jocks are thinking, not that it it would've made much difference if she was closer. Unzip Me was just too strong, and had too much of a tactical advantage here.

Originally Posted by hotbustop

I'm on Minute Limit in this race. Should be a good one!

Nice call on Minute Limit.....ran second @ 14/1