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Old 02-16-2013, 07:52 AM   #1
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Default DRF's "Derby Watch" column
Just noticed something in yesterday's DRF "Derby Watch" column that is flat-out ridiculous.

On the left-hand side after the horse's name and ranking, there's an odds listing called "Watchmaker's Odds", which ostensibly is Watchmaker's estimation of that horse's chance of winning the Derby. I mean, what else could it be, since he's not taking bets, right???

Anyway, right after that number comes the horse's closing odds in the just-ended Pool One of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

So, here's where it gets REALLY disingenuous (as if listing horses @ 6/1 halfway through February isn't disingenuous enough).

EVERY SINGLE HORSE on the list is showing "Watchmaker Odds" LOWER than the price that they closed at in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. EVERY SINGLE HORSE.

I guess that means there wasn't a bad bet in that entire pool, right???

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Old 02-17-2013, 09:15 AM   #2
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Just noticed something in yesterday's DRF "Derby Watch" column that is flat-out ridiculous.

On the left-hand side after the horse's name and ranking, there's an odds listing called "Watchmaker's Odds", which ostensibly is Watchmaker's estimation of that horse's chance of winning the Derby. I mean, what else could it be, since he's not taking bets, right???

Anyway, right after that number comes the horse's closing odds in the just-ended Pool One of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

So, here's where it gets REALLY disingenuous (as if listing horses @ 6/1 halfway through February isn't disingenuous enough).

EVERY SINGLE HORSE on the list is showing "Watchmaker Odds" LOWER than the price that they closed at in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. EVERY SINGLE HORSE.

I guess that means there wasn't a bad bet in that entire pool, right???


Yeah, almost as bad as the guy I saw going nuts yesterday, asking everyone if they had seen Capo Bastone (who he wisely bet in the futures), and proclaiming him the Derby winner "if he can stay sound." SMFH.
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Old 02-21-2013, 08:41 PM   #3
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Yeah, almost as bad as the guy I saw going nuts yesterday, asking everyone if they had seen Capo Bastone (who he wisely bet in the futures), and proclaiming him the Derby winner "if he can stay sound." SMFH.

Capo Bastone came back with a lofty 69 Beyer. Pletcher noted, "he got a little tired at the end." Good luck with that.


BTW Watchmaker cut Super 99 from 30-1 to 15-1 after his win. LOL. How does that affect everyone else, or does he only lower odds.

Another BTW: John, your colt is 30-1 on his line.
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Old 02-22-2013, 06:55 AM   #4
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I don't think we learned anything about Super Ninety Nine this past week, other than the fact that he apparently doesn't mind the mud. To me he doesn't look real different from Secret Circle insofar as his Derby prospects go.

Meanwhile, Palace Malice goes from not being on any previous list to all of a sudden being ranked 13th. Couldn't have anything to do with the fact he's entered this weekend, could it?

Btw, loving that 8/1 morning line. Too sweet.
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Old 02-23-2013, 05:52 AM   #5
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So what do you do with Palace Malice today? Bet him across the board? Do you think he'll beat Normandy Invasion?
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Old 02-23-2013, 10:32 AM   #6
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I bet him Win & Place. And yes i do.
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Old 02-23-2013, 03:17 PM   #7
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I bet him Win & Place. And yes i do.
Okay. I'm really done with female jockeys.
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Old 02-23-2013, 03:34 PM   #8
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Most of you know that I could not go to NOLA due to a family thing.. Good thing, or I would be grabbing Rosie by the fuckin throat right now. In, out, in,out, in, out!!!!

broke slow and she never had a good hold of him. Ran in a crowd and lost interest on the backstretch, then all over the fuckin track----- I'm with you dirty----she did not have the strength to guide him the way he needed to be ridden.

See you all at Oaklawn in Rebel with Johnny V in the saddle!!!
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Old 02-23-2013, 03:57 PM   #9
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Okay. I'm really done with female jockeys.

She is terrible. She Cost me more money this past Saratoga meet!!!!!
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