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Old 12-08-2012, 10:59 AM   #1
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From the other thread, but feel free to add others, as well as additional info about hopefuls.


Horse: Mentor Cane

Analysis by clocker Donald Harris

Forecasting the future… Unless you are Nostradamus, even the most seasoned professional, of any industry, will tell you the most efficient lessons are learned through mistakes. I have now been a student of clocking for 10 years, so I assume with another 8 years under my belt, I will graduate the equivalent of high school for the profession. Until then, I heed the words of Brad Pitt in the movie Moneyball in regards to his great exchange with scout Grady Fuson. For those that have not seen that film, I would strongly suggest giving it a watch. Trust me, these ramblings will make a touch more sense.


With that helpful disclaimer out of the way, I would like to share my thoughts on a John Shirreffs’ gray by the name of Mentor Cane. The most important tool I have is my gut. It is a tool that can only be sharpened with time. My gut first rumbled about Mentor on October 9th when he showed a legit burst in a team drill where he big-brothered older runner Odeon. In his very next drill on October 18th, my gut said, “this dude is a runner”. He humiliated Odeon. His subsequent drills have not diminished my crush.


What are my expectations? Anything short of a stakes winner and I would be disappointed. The fact that he is an unraced two year old about to turn the Kentucky Derby age of three gets my mind racing. I always have to take note of possible foibles. He does seem fond of leaning in while running on the wrong lead. Thus far that has not slowed him down, but I have found that that could lead to issues on race day. He also seems a bit hot blooded. He will work up a little lather during his routine morning gallops. Nevertheless, I am hoping Shirreffs keeps Mentor happy and sound, so that we can see how his career unfolds from this point. This great game is about athletes. Only racing will prove what kind of athlete Mentor Cane will become because purse money and black type is not awarded for bullet drills. Right now, he sure looks good on the practice field.

Analysis by Andy Harrington, veteran SoCal clocker:

MENTOR CANE Nov 14 HOL 5 1:00.1HG M FT B
Clearly a Derby type prospect as this one showed massive power after an awkward break motoring clear from barnmate Far Rockaway in 25.2, 49.0 breezing out in 101.2. Stride to burn here although we are not sure if he if cranked up enough for 7 furlongs.---Grade: B
MENTOR CANE Nov 5 HOL 5 1:00H M FT B
Demolished a barnmate here displaying a classic type stride, last 4f in 22.4, 47.0. Unlimited upside for this charismatic very dark grey.---Grade: B
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Old 12-08-2012, 06:37 PM   #2
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Oh boy. This one looks really sporty. Broke well and just ran around in a circle, never asked much, to a clear second. Almost has a Pamplemousse feel to me.

The winner was a fully cranked Baffert @ 4/5 named Flashback. Which brings up another question, how many expensive fucking 2YO's does Baffert train for the West family? How many do they have across the country? Honestly, anything besides a Kentucky Derby win has to be considered a loss for them.
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Old 12-08-2012, 07:15 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirtyshirt View Post

The winner was a fully cranked Baffert @ 4/5 named Flashback. Which brings up another question, how many expensive fucking 2YO's does Baffert train for the West family? How many do they have across the country? Honestly, anything besides a Kentucky Derby win has to be considered a loss for them.
Another note here, Flashback was working in company (although looking slightly the best) with an unraced colt named Battled.
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Old 12-09-2012, 01:48 AM   #4
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Much upside with Mentor Cane. He should only get better and the connections certainly don't need to rush him into anything.

FLASHBACK---another gray monster from the TAPIT bloodline. Which brings up another question, there is not a Saturday that comes up that we do not see a TAPIT colt or fillie running off in big stakes races, The ones winning now were bred when TAPIT went for $40k lfsn, now they go for $125 or more. They seem to excell in distances of one mile to 1 1/8 but not much going longer. I sure hope this blood and athletic ability found its way to my yearling ---along with a little bit of stamina from the Include/Broad Brush/Roberto bloodline from dam side! Most of the TAPIT yearlings sold at Keeneland were catalogued in first sessions and went for big prices to the usual suspects.

Arabs and Irish notwithstanding, most of the big owners want their horses with Baffert ot Pletcher. Both well-run operations that produce good results. I can see a first Saturday in May with these trainers filling up six stalls in the race, or more if they stay healthy. But, that never happens!
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Old 12-09-2012, 06:46 AM   #5
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Too bad Mentor Cane didn't win yesterday. He was a pretty sweet price @ 9/2.
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Old 12-09-2012, 11:38 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DiscreetCat View Post
Too bad Mentor Cane didn't win yesterday. He was a pretty sweet price @ 9/2.
Agreed. And when he broke on top I was excited, but he was never pushed along. He will crush going two turns, and who's to say that he doesn't REALLY like the front end on the SA dirt?
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Old 12-09-2012, 06:42 PM   #7
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Odds as of 12/03/2012

.
OPEN CURRENT OPEN CURRENT

.
A.P. INDIAN 275/1 200/1 CHARMING KITTEN 250/1 300/1

.
ADVANCED DEGREE 300/1 300/1 CHANNEL ISLAND 300/1 300/1

.
AL WAAB 250/1 250/1 CHIEF HAVOC 175/1 175/1

.
ALFONSO DE SOUSA 250/1 250/1 CLAWBACK 225/1 225/1

.
ALI'S BIRTHDAY 250/1 250/1 CLEARLY NOW 300/1 250/1

.
ALMOST ENGLISH 275/1 275/1 CODE WEST 225/1 60/1

.
ALWAYS IN A TIZ 225/1 200/1 COLLINS SMILE 250/1 250/1

.
AMARISH 350/1 350/1 COOL UNDER FIRE 150/1 225/1

.
AMERIGO VESPUCCI 250/1 225/1 CRAVING CARATS 275/1 275/1

.
ANYTIME MAGIC 350/1 350/1 DAN THE TIN MAN 350/1 500/1

.
APEX 275/1 275/1 DARWIN 85/1 85/1

.
ARCHER HILL 300/1 200/1 DAWN APPROACH 175/1 175/1

.
ARCHWARRIOR 150/1 35/1 DECLAN'S WARRIOR 225/1 225/1

.
ARE YOU KIDDING ME 250/1 200/1 DELHOMME 225/1 100/1

.
ARTIGIANO 200/1 250/1 DEN'S LEGACY 175/1 250/1

.
AVARE 250/1 300/1 DESERT STRIKE 175/1 250/1

.
AVIE'S QUALITY 200/1 150/1 DEWEY SQUARE 125/1 60/1

.
BAD HOMBRE 300/1 300/1 DIPSY DREW 175/1 175/1

.
BALANCE THE BOOKS 175/1 85/1 DIRTY SWAGG 300/1 250/1

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BAMBAZONKI 275/1 200/1 DISCREET GLEN 175/1 175/1

.
BATTLE OF MARENGO 200/1 150/1 DRAW TWO 225/1 125/1

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BE A HERO 350/1 300/1 DREAMING OF JULIA (F) 60/1 200/1

.
BEHOLDER (F) 85/1 85/1 DRUM ROLL 175/1 225/1

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BERN IDENTITY 175/1 50/1 DRY SUMMER 100/1 275/1

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BEST OF BIRDSTONE 275/1 275/1 DUKE OF THE CITY 150/1 150/1

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BIRDMAN 300/1 300/1 DUNDONNELL 225/1 225/1

.
BLACK ONYX 225/1 175/1 DYNAMIC SKY 125/1 200/1

.
BOBBY V. 300/1 300/1 EL DURO 225/1 225/1

.
BOGART 300/1 300/1 EXECUTIVEPRIVILEGE (F) 100/1 125/1

.
BOLD CHALLENGER 250/1 250/1 EXPLORING 275/1 275/1

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BOLD DANCE 225/1 225/1 FAVOR FACTOR 225/1 225/1

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BOW BELLS (F) 200/1 200/1 FAVORITE UNCLE 275/1 350/1

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BRADESTER 125/1 125/1 FEAR THE KITTEN 200/1 200/1

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BRAVE DAVE 175/1 150/1 FINALLYGOTABENTLEY 250/1 350/1

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BROWN ALMIGHTY 150/1 225/1 FINN'S QUEST* 300/1 300/1

.
BUCKLEBERRY GREY 200/1 300/1 FIVE IRON 225/1 275/1

.
CABALLO DEL CIELO 300/1 300/1 FIRE GUARD 225/1 200/1

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CALGARY CAT 150/1 125/1 FLATHEAD RIVER 300/1 300/1

.
CAMEO APPEARANCE 250/1 250/1 FLOTILLA (F) 300/1 300/1

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CAPO BASTONE 225/1 35/1 FLYING BIRD 200/1 200/1

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CARDSTON 300/1 300/1 FOR GREATER GLORY 250/1 250/1

.
CAROL'S JIMMY 300/1 300/1 FOREVER THING 250/1 250/1

.
CARRIED INTEREST 225/1 150/1 FORTIFY 75/1 65/1

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CARSON'S CROWN 200/1 200/1 FORTY TALES 250/1 250/1

.
CARVING 150/1 85/1 FRAC DADDY 100/1 25/1

.
CASH EMPIRE 200/1 200/1 FREDERICKSBURG 250/1 300/1

.
CENTRAL BANKER 250/1 175/1 FURY KAPCORI 300/1 125/1

.


.
OPEN CURRENT OPEN CURRENT

.
GABRIEL CHARLES 225/1 275/1 MAYBE SO 200/1 200/1

.
GENERAL ELECTION 150/1 150/1 MEET THE METS 250/1 350/1

.
GEORGE VANCOUVER 175/1 125/1 MERIT MAN 250/1 225/1

.
GERVINHO 300/1 175/1 MICO MARGARITA 250/1 250/1

.
GET BUSY LIVIN 200/1 200/1 MICROMANAGE 60/1 225/1

.
GET HAPPY MISTER 125/1 125/1 MIDNIGHT MAZEL* 200/1 200/1

.
GOLDENCENTS 125/1 25/1 MILE RANGE 275/1 325/1

.
GOLDEN SOUL 300/1 300/1 MISDEED 150/1 125/1

.
GOOD TICKLED 275/1 350/1 MODEL CITIZEN 250/1 250/1

.
GULFPORT 150/1 45/1 MODERN 225/1 225/1

.
GUNDERMAN 275/1 300/1 MONUMENT 250/1 200/1

.
HANDSOME JACK 225/1 225/1 MOOQTAR 175/1 175/1

.
HARD TO NAME 225/1 150/1 MR. JAWBREAKER 225/1 225/1

.
HARDROCK ELEVEN 250/1 250/1 MUPPET MAN 150/1 150/1

.
HAVOC 300/1 300/1 MUSIC OF MY SOUL 325/1 325/1

.
HE'S HAD ENOUGH 150/1 25/1 MY NAME IS MICHAEL 275/1 200/1

.
HE'S SO FINE 225/1 325/1 MYLUTE 150/1 150/1

.
HIGH FIVE AGAIN 275/1 275/1 NARVAEZ 50/1 50/1

.
HIGHTAIL 300/1 150/1 NATIVE TREASURE 325/1 325/1

.
HONORABLE DILLON 200/1 175/1 NEVADA 175/1 225/1

.
HONORABLE GUEST 225/1 175/1 NEWFOUND ZAPPER 275/1 275/1

.
HOOFING CAT 200/1 350/1 NIIGON'S GLORY 250/1 325/1

.
I'M BOUNDTOSCORE 175/1 300/1 NIPISSING (F) 275/1 225/1

.
I'M WIDE AWAKE 300/1 400/1 NOBLE TUNE 100/1 45/1

.
IMPERATIVE 200/1 250/1 NORMANDY INVASION 175/1 35/1

.
IN HARM'S WAY 300/1 300/1 NORTHERN LION 300/1 300/1

.
IN TODD WE TRUST 275/1 175/1 NORTH SLOPE 250/1 225/1

.
INDIANO JONES 225/1 300/1 NOTACATBUTALLAMA 175/1 125/1

.
INDY'S ILLUSION 150/1 200/1 OBLAHLAH (F) 250/1 250/1

.
IRISH SURF 250/1 250/1 ON THE GO 250/1 300/1

.
IRSAAL 150/1 225/1 ONETWENTYEIGHT 100/1 100/1

.
ITSMYLUCKYDAY 100/1 175/1 ORB 200/1 125/1

.
JACK N JOHN 275/1 300/1 ORE PASS 175/1 175/1

.
JAVA'S WAR 250/1 150/1 ORIGINAL SCRIPT (F) 225/1 200/1

.
JOCOSITY 85/1 85/1 OVERANALYZE 175/1 25/1

.
JOELITO 300/1 225/1 OVERWHELMING 200/1 200/1

.
JOHA 300/1 250/1 OXBOW 250/1 200/1

.
JOHN GORDON 275/1 275/1 PALACE MALICE 100/1 40/1

.
JUST CALL ME AL 175/1 175/1 PALMY BAY 250/1 250/1

.
KAUAI KATIE (F) 200/1 200/1 PARK CITY 225/1 150/1

.
KEEP MOMMA HAPPY 300/1 300/1 PARNELLI 300/1 300/1

.
KILLING ME SMALLS 150/1 150/1 PATAKY KID 125/1 100/1

.
KINGSBARNS 250/1 250/1 PEDRO THE GREAT 250/1 250/1

.
KNOW MORE 65/1 200/1 PITCH N ROLL 250/1 250/1

.
LAILA'S JAZZ 300/1 300/1 PLATITUDE 300/1 300/1

.
LAWN MAN 175/1 175/1 POSITIVELY 150/1 150/1

.
LEMON DROP DREAM 275/1 275/1 POWER BROKER 175/1 35/1

.
LEW AND MIKE 275/1 350/1 PRAETORIAN PREFECT 350/1 300/1

.
LINES OF BATTLE 200/1 250/1 PROCUREMENT 225/1 225/1

.
LITTLE DISTORTED 150/1 100/1 PRO PROSPECT 175/1 175/1

.
LITTLE JERRY 200/1 200/1 PROHIBITION 250/1 250/1

.
LONG RIVER 200/1 150/1 PRICE IS TRUTH 300/1 300/1

.
LUCKY TIZ 250/1 250/1 PURE FUN (F) 300/1 300/1

.
MALIBU HIGH 225/1 225/1 PURE LOYALTY 300/1 300/1

.


.
OPEN CURRENT OPEN CURRENT

.
PURPLE EGG 150/1 40/1 STEELER 200/1 200/1

.
PUSHTHEBUTTONMAX 250/1 250/1 STORMIN MONARCHO 200/1 200/1

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PYRITE MOUNTAIN* 275/1 275/1 STORMY LEN 275/1 325/1

.
QUINZIEME MONRQUE 150/1 200/1 STRATOCRUISER 350/1 400/1

.
RAY'S AWAY 325/1 325/1 STREET SPICE 275/1 350/1

.
REACHING OUT 275/1 275/1 STRONG RESPONSE 300/1 350/1

.
READ THE PROPOSAL 175/1 175/1 SUCESSFUL BROTHERS 225/1 275/1

.
REALLY MR GREELY 250/1 250/1 SUPER NINETY NINE 150/1 85/1

.
REALLY SHARP 175/1 200/1 SURFCUP 225/1 225/1

.
REI 300/1 300/1 SYMPHONY FORTY ONE 300/1 325/1

.
RES JUDICATA 175/1 125/1 TAKENBYTHESTORM 175/1 200/1

.
RESURGENCE 250/1 250/1 TAPE IT 150/1 150/1

.
RETREIVE 225/1 225/1 TATE'S LANDING 225/1 200/1

.
REVOLUTIONARY 100/1 75/1 TESSERON 85/1 65/1

.
RIENZI 275/1 275/1 THANE 125/1 125/1

.
RISING LEGEND 150/1 125/1 THE ABSOLUTE ONE 225/1 225/1

.
RIVER SEVEN 125/1 50/1 THE FERRYMAN 200/1 200/1

.
ROLLING FOG 100/1 125/1 TITLE CONTENDER 200/1 85/1

.
ROMAN'S AVENUE 200/1 125/1 TITLETOWN FIVE 200/1 85/1

.
ROSE JUNCTION 275/1 275/1 TIZ FOR TAT 225/1 225/1

.
ROSE TO GOLD (F) 250/1 250/1 TIZRACER 50/1 60/1

.
ROYAL BARRISTER 175/1 175/1 TOASTING (F) 200/1 200/1

.
RULER OF LOVE 200/1 300/1 TO THE STARS 250/1 250/1

.
SAINT X* 275/1 275/1 TOUR GUIDE 250/1 275/1

.
SAYAAD 225/1 225/1 TRACK ROCKER 300/1 200/1

.
SAYLER'S CREEK 175/1 175/1 TRANSPARENT 300/1 200/1

.
SCHERER MAGIC 125/1 125/1 TREASURY BILL 150/1 150/1

.
SHAKIN IT UP 175/1 100/1 TREE OF LIFE 150/1 125/1

.
SHANGHAI BOBBY 40/1 18/1 TULIRA CASTLE 175/1 150/1

.
SHARP SENSATION 300/1 300/1 TWO T'S AT TWO B 300/1 275/1

.
SHE'S ON PARADE (F) 250/1 250/1 UNCAPTURED 30/1 12/1

.
SHINING COPPER 200/1 200/1 UNLIMITED BUDGET (F) 200/1 200/1

.
SHOW SOME MAGIC 250/1 300/1 UPTOWN BOY 325/1 325/1

.
SIETE DE OROS 225/1 225/1 UP WITH THE BIRDS 225/1 150/1

.
SILVER DAY 250/1 200/1 VALUE TRAP 250/1 250/1

.
SILVER TONGUED 275/1 300/1 VEGAS NO SHOW 350/1 250/1

.
SINGANOTHERSONG 275/1 325/1 VIOLENCE 60/1 25/1

.
SIGN (F) 100/1 125/1 VISIONARY RULER 300/1 300/1

.
SKY CAPTAIN 125/1 125/1 VOLASTIC 350/1 350/1

.
SKY COMMANDER 300/1 400/1 VYJACK 200/1 200/1

.
SLAMARAMA 325/1 400/1 WADI AL HATTAWI 200/1 200/1

.
SNAKE PIT 200/1 200/1 WAR ACADEMY 125/1 75/1

.
SONOFASAMURAI 275/1 200/1 WEEKEND HIDEAWAY 150/1 175/1

.
SOUL HOUSE 225/1 225/1 WHERE'S DOMINIC 275/1 275/1

.
SOUTH FLOYD 300/1 300/1 WILD BILLUM 200/1 350/1

.
SPEAK LOGISTICS 275/1 125/1 WILL TAKE CHARGE 225/1 350/1

.
SPECIAL SKILLS 175/1 250/1 WINNING CAUSE 275/1 275/1

.
SPRING IN THE AIR (F) 200/1 150/1 WIN WIRE 300/1 300/1

.
SPRING VENTURE (F) 200/1 225/1 WISKEY ROMEO 175/1 150/1

.
SQUALL KING 225/1 225/1 XAVI 325/1 125/1

.
SR. QUISQUEYANO 150/1 225/1 YANKEE REBEL 225/1 225/1

.
STAGE STREET 150/1 225/1 Z BIG APPLE 300/1 60/1

.
STAR CONTENDER 275/1 250/1 ZEEWAT 225/1 225/1

.
STAY IN DIXIE 275/1 250/1 ZOLOTO 275/1 350/1

.


.
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Old 12-09-2012, 06:43 PM   #8
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Sorry about the janky-ness above. Here's a link to PP's of all the 2013 contenders:

Bris Library - Future Book Odds brought to you by Wynn Las Vegas
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Old 12-09-2012, 06:51 PM   #9
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And yes, Uncaptured is 12-1. Solid wager.
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Old 12-09-2012, 08:51 PM   #10
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Palace Malice 100/1 40/1
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Old 12-09-2012, 09:00 PM   #11
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Biggest goes:

CAPO BASTONE 225/1 35/1

GOLDENCENTS 125/1 25/1

HE'S HAD ENOUGH 150/1 25/1 I'll Have Another connections

POWER BROKER 175/1 35/1

ARCHWARRIOR 150/1 35/1 At one point Pletcher was calling him best ever, distance issues?

CODE WEST 225/1 60/1

That's 2 Baffert's, 2 Oneill's, a Pletcher, and whoever has the Capo now.
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Old 12-09-2012, 09:02 PM   #12
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Ohh. Kauai Katie, who's gonna stay sprinting, is a deal @ 100-1.
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Old 12-09-2012, 09:10 PM   #13
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I do like this one:

SHAKIN IT UP 175/1 100/1

Novelty only, 250/1 is much closer to fair.
Would take 100/1 on our buddy Mentor Cane if they post him soon. Maybe get more.
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Old 12-09-2012, 09:43 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirtyshirt View Post
Biggest goes:

CAPO BASTONE 225/1 35/1 This is a runner for sure, but 200-1 is fair

GOLDENCENTS 125/1 25/1 Ummmm.

HE'S HAD ENOUGH 150/1 25/1 I'll Have Another connections

POWER BROKER 175/1 35/1 Gary & Mary West

ARCHWARRIOR 150/1 35/1 At one point Pletcher was calling him best ever, distance issues?

CODE WEST 225/1 60/1 Gary & Mary West

That's 2 Baffert's, 2 Oneill's, a Pletcher, and whoever has the Capo now.
Adding:

Z BIG APPLE 300/1 60/1 Overbet badly, but another Baffert
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Old 12-09-2012, 09:47 PM   #15
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Adding:

BERN IDENTITY 175/1 50/1 Eh. Just bad.
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Old 12-09-2012, 09:57 PM   #16
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DELHOMME 225/1 100/1 Fail.
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Old 12-11-2012, 12:45 PM   #17
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Where's that sheet from, Dirty?


Btw, it looks like Flashback got a 93 Beyer when beating Mentor Cane the other day...

Hollywood: Flashback one to watch from Baffert barn | Daily Racing Form
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Old 12-11-2012, 03:16 PM   #18
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Wynn, I think DC.
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Old 12-11-2012, 06:54 PM   #19
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Colt: Res Judicata

From our very own FB:

Take a look at this runner from the Servis barn and also is the same connections at my favorite horse Smarty Jones. It's great to see those silks coming down the lane to the winners circle. This looks to me as a nice 2yo with a great stride and if anything close to his dad he will be a real runner on this race. His dosage is 5.00 so we will have to wait and see how he runs around two turns. He came back this past weekend and ran 2nd in the Penn Nursery. He is going to winter at The Stream. Book him for the Trail

Odds: RES JUDICATA 175/1 125/1
Somebody took a small piece....
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Old 12-11-2012, 07:24 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by John Greenhaw View Post

Arabs and Irish notwithstanding, most of the big owners want their horses with Baffert ot Pletcher. Both well-run operations that produce good results. I can see a first Saturday in May with these trainers filling up six stalls in the race, or more if they stay healthy. But, that never happens!
Wonder how this plays out with points/earnings?
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Old 12-13-2012, 11:50 AM   #21
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Odds: RES JUDICATA 175/1 125/1
Somebody took a small piece....
It might be as simple as his name showing up in the Racing Form, That's all it takes sometimes, i'm sorry to say...
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Old 12-13-2012, 03:29 PM   #22
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I have a buddy hunting for $50 on Little Jerry and Mentor Cane for me. I don't like Jerry at all, but somebody gave him to me. Plus, the horse he nosed out got blasted today. Whatever.
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Old 12-15-2012, 10:06 AM   #23
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Another note here, Flashback was working in company (although looking slightly the best) with an unraced colt named Battled.
Battled is entered today....
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Old 12-15-2012, 10:22 AM   #24
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Battled is entered today....
Yeah, the "other" Baffert in here was going with Title Contender two back, but this looks like the real deal here.

BATTLED Dec 10 SA 4 :48.2H M FT B+
Tracked and ran away from a mate here in 24.3, 47.3 flying on a happy gallop in 59.4. Lots to like here.---Grade: B+
BATTLED Nov 19 SA 6 1:11.3HG M FT B+
Big early speed with impressive recent winner Flashback leveling nicely around the turn finishing well in 23.1, 46.3, 59.1, 111.3. Moving strong for debut.---Grade: B+
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Old 12-15-2012, 12:34 PM   #25
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Battled also worked with Flashback on Dec. 2. Not to mention, he worked a furlong in 10.0 at the May Barrett's sale. Love this guy today...
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