Hey guys, just wanted to respond to your postings from last night. While I understand your frustration with the idea that races are fixed,which I'm not debating happens, especially at small tracks, I think handicappers tend to rely too much on that theory and it starts to cloud their opinions on races.

Using your example from Mountaineer last night, you percieved a 25-1 shot wire the field by seven lengths with no opposition on a muddy track, assuming the track should be tiring to speeds.

What I saw is a 25-1 horse with lone speed that could not get the lead last time out from horses that were much quicker and had no ability to rate. Now against easier competition the 25-1 shot in question was definately going to get the lead on a track where 7 out of 10 winners lead at first call and went onto win, clearly a speed bias track. Its important to note that a muddy track plays as a sloppy track at Mountaineer, where speeds excel in these conditions, they not compromised, like some other tracks. Also, I might like to add Lu's Choice having all these advantages: lone speed, loose lead, speed favoring track, rider upgrade, recent hot trainer also came out a key race where where there were 2 next out winners, 1 second and 2 third. Well, I guess now that makes 3 next out winners. Racing is a game of perception, try to see what no one else sees and you will be successful long term. Any questions/comments please reply back. I share your frustration.

Chris Longshot


MR EXACTA


I laughed when I saw you example of the race you listed above. I had the same thing happen to me at Mountaineer. I had a 85-1 on top with a 6-1 shot second, favorite out of the money, the exacta came back $155.80. A few months later, I actually went to Mountaineer, which I do quite frequently and talked to someone in charge of the racing there just out of curiosity. He explained that the exacta pool for that race was not large since it was the first race of the night and despite the horse going off at 85-1 many punters had the exacta, go figure, when divided among the winners that was the payoff. To add insult to injury the very next race after that a 16-1 won on top of a 7-1 and paid $275.80. Maybe you guys are right after all. lol

Thanks, Chris Longshot