The difference with the Belmont (at least until Charitable Man joined the fray) is that Rachel figured to have a very easy trip up front. That wasn't the case in the Preakness, where she was forced to carve out some very solid fractions for the distance. Combine that with the fact that the Belmont fractions are generally pretty slow anyway (due to the distance), and it seemed that Rachel might have an easy time of it. That's why the inclusion of Charitable Man is a very big deal; it changes the pace scenario. He did lay well off the pace oin the Peter Pan, but that was because Hello Broadway was going way too fast early. So i think Charitable Man might end up being the key to the race here; particularly if he draws to Rachel's outside. If Rachel can relax early, she figures very tough. But if forced to use too much early energy, it might set up for Mine That Bird or one of the other closers. Generally speaking though, you don't want to be too far off the pace in the Belmont. That would seem to favor Rachel and/or Charitable Man, although it's possible that Mine That Bird & Company will be much closer to the pace this time, due to the slower fractions.

Should be a very interesting race but the pace does not set up well for the Derby winner. Charitable Man ran a huge race last time out as did RA. Does the Derby winner hit the board... I don't think so.