from Bloodhorse:

Because of a change in the weather forecast to light rain, the watering of the Longchamp course has ceased, but track officials still hope to get good ground for the Oct. 4 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Fr-I).


According to The Racing Post, clerk of the course Christian Delporte listed the course as of Sept. 29 as good to firm.


The skies are supposed to cloud up Oct. 1, with a slight chance of rain, after which the temperatures will drop Oct. 2, followed by patches of rain the day before the Arc and on race day.


Despite the possibility of a maximum 20-horse field for the Arc, Sea the Stars’ odds are actually going down with most of the bookmakers, and he remains a heavy favorite, with William Hill offering him at 4-6.


Khalid Abdullah’s Spanish Moon, winner of the Prix Foy (Fr-II) and Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (Fr-I) is unlikely to run in the Arc, as Juddmonte has decided to go with just their King George VI and Queen Elizabeth (Eng-I) winner Conduit. Spanish Moon instead will be pointed for either the Breeders’ Cup or races in Japan or Hong Kong.


One trainer who will be watching the weather closely is Michael Bell, who is hoping for rain for his English Oaks (Eng-I) and Irish Oaks (Ire-I) winner Sariska. If the course remains on the good to firm side, Sariska will be withdrawn from the Arc and point for either the Champion Stakes (Eng-I) or Canadian International (gr. IT).

If you could bet one horse to upset Sea the Stars who would it be?

Probably Youmzain. He's always been a top-notch animal, and he's run second in the Arc each of the last two years. His rider Fallon is touting him pretty hard also, and i don't remember him being this outspoken before (at least not aboard a longshot). Getting ready to post an article about that...