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I always enjoy handicapping the All-Star Game. There are a wide assortment of props available on the game, some of which offer great value. My preferred method of handicapping the props is trying to gauge how long each of the starters figure to play. As you know, there's a constant influx of new players once you get past the 3rd inning. Factors you can use to handicap this are as follows: (a) Find out how many backups there are at each position, and who they are. (b) Find out which players are nursing an injury. Hanley Ramirez, for instance. (c) Consider the manager, and how much playing time he might give to his own players. They tend to get a bit more than average. (d) Consider the game's location, in this case Yankee Stadium. Yankees (and perhaps Mets) figure to play longer. Oftentimes you can find a head-to-head player matchup where one player figures to get an extra at-bat, or even two. That's huge.
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| | #2 |
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Here are some props from the Las Vegas Hilton: TOTAL NUMBER OF DIFFERENT PLAYERS TO THROW A PITCH: OVER 16.5 -150 UNDER 16.5 +130 TOTAL STRIKEOUTS BY: BOTH TEAMS OVER 13.5 -110 UNDER 13.5 -110 TOTAL RUNS+HITS+ERRORS BY: BOTH TEAMS OVER 30.5 -110 UNDER 30.5 -110 TOTAL HOME RUNS BY: BOTH TEAMS OVER 2.5 -150 UNDER 2.5 +130 TOTAL NUMBER OF DIFFERENT PLAYERS TO GET A HIT: OVER 15.5 -140 UNDER 15.5 +120 WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE IN THE 1ST INNING? YES -120 NO EVEN MOST HITS+RUNS HANLEY RAMIREZ +115 ICHIRO SUZUKI -135 MOST HITS+RUNS+RBI'S CHIPPER JONES -110 MILTON BRADLEY -110 MOST HITS+RUNS+RBI'S ALBERT PUJOLS +125 ALEX RODRIGUEZ -145 MOST HITS+RUNS+RBI'S CHASE UTLEY EVEN DEREK JETER -120 MOST TOTAL BASES (Single=1, Double=2, Triple=3, Home Run=4, All Else=0) LANCE BERKMAN +110 JOSH HAMILTON -130 MOST HITS+RBI'S RYAN BRAUN +105 KEVIN YOUKILIS -125 MOST HITS+RBI'S MATT HOLLIDAY +105 MANNY RAMIREZ -125 WILL JOSH HAMILTON STRIKEOUT AT LEAST ONCE? YES +170 NO -200 WILL ALEX RODRIGUEZ HIT A HOME RUN? YES +400 NO -600 WILL LANCE BERKMAN HIT A HOME RUN? YES +500 NO -700 WILL CHIPPER JONES GET AT LEAST 1 RBI? YES +200 NO -240 WILL ANY PLAYER GET EXACTLY 3 HITS? YES +170 NO -190
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| | #3 |
| Moderator Join Date: Jul 2007
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Regarding the Youkilis/Braun prop, i would side with Youkilis because there's only one first baseman on the bench behind him (Morneau), and the AL is being managed by Francona (who figures to give more time to his own players). The big problem however is that Youkilis left Sunday's game after being hit in the arm by a pitch. If he's anything less than 100%, Francona (with the Red Sox's interests in mind) might sit him early. I definitely favor Ichiro in the Ichiro/Ramirez prop, because Ramirez missed Sunday's game with a sore shoulder, and there's been some question as to his status for the All-Star Game. The latest i've heard (from the Miami Herald) is that "all systems are go", but of course starting the game and playing well into-it are two different matters. The other factor is that there are 3 shortstops on the NL roster (Tejada and Guzman being the others), so Hanley probably figures to leave kinda soon anyway. Ichiro, if memory serves, tends to last about as long as anybody in these All-Star Games, and there are only 3 outfield reserves on the AL roster. I think Ichiro should have at least 1 extra at-bat over Ramirez, perhaps two. I would look at Pujols in that Arod/Pujols matchup, because there are 3 third basemen on the bench behind Arod. That being said, the game is in Yankee Stadium, and none of the 3 reserves (Crede, Guillen, Longoria) are big stars.
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