I think the best opportunity to bet against Curlin would be in the Arc. If Curlin does indeed run there, the race will be offered by virtually every American wagering outlet, i would think. And as i know from betting the Arc over the last several years, the American money wagered on the Arc is conducted in an American-only pool (thru Arlington, i think). And who do you think all those American racing fans will be betting on? Hmmm? The name they know, obviously. I would expect there to be some pretty serious overlays on the European contenders, who quite frankly figure to win the race. I mean, as of this writing, as good as Curlin is, you're talking about a horse who has never run on turf before, and who lost in his only previous attempt at 1 1/2 miles. Now put him on a European-style righthanded course (which may well be soft on raceday) vs. top-level European turf monsters, the majority of whom are quite comfortable with 1 1/2 miles (not to mention the surface conditions). As i mentioned to a friend recently, even Deep Impact couldn't ship over and win that race, and his credentials for winning the Arc were far superior to Curlin's.

All this being said, i think Asmussen is very smart by planning to ship Curlin to Europe early in order to give him a course-and-distance prep (i'm guessing the Prix Foy). A win there would clearly strengthen his credentials for winning the Arc, and perhaps render a lot of what i just said moot. Here's hoping he doesn't do that, and ships him right over on top of the race.

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