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02-26-2011, 07:35 PM
| #1 |
| Moderator  Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 6,123
Rep Power: 18 Thanks: 75 Thanked 195 Times in 164 Posts  |  Anyone see the late odds-drop on Soldat?
In the biggest race of the weekend, and ceratinly one of the larger betting pools of the weekend, Soldat went into the gate @ 2/1. The then came out the other side @ 7/5, and went on to win the race, of course. How do the odds drop past 9/5, 8/5, and 3/2 in a matter of about 20 seconds, in a race as large as the Fountain of Youth?
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02-27-2011, 02:05 PM
| #2 |
| Junior Member  Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 15
Rep Power: 0 Thanks: 2 Thanked 2 Times in 2 Posts | More than half of late money comes in on Soldat
At 2/1 Soldat has ~28% of the win pool going in; and ~35% when he finishes up at 7/5.Assuming 1/4 of the pool comes in after he enters the gate, then the late money, taken as a separate pool, would make him a 1/2 fave with breakage. Actually, a dollar would win 57 cents before breakage.
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02-27-2011, 11:18 PM
| #3 |
| Moderator Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 6,123
Rep Power: 18 Thanks: 75 Thanked 195 Times in 164 Posts |
Hard to believe that he can be bet like a 1/2 shot, when he was wasn't even the favorite at all with 0 mtp. Especially in a race with that kind of money already in the pool, and the other horse (To Honor And Serve) being widely regarded as one of the Derby favorites. Btw, thanks for the analysis Don. Interesting to know the math behind it.
__________________ www.DiscreetPicks.com Last edited by DiscreetCat; 02-27-2011 at 11:26 PM. |
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