Connections are talking like they may not point to the Derby, but after a performance like that and with A.P. Indy breeding, how can they not?

I see him at 40-1 and 45-1 at some offshores.

Any thoughts?

Just found this blurb that sounds a bit promising:

Trainer Graham Motion forecasted the victory by saying beforehand that, if Adriano won, it would not mean that the colt was en route to Louisville. But after owner Donald Adam got a taste of Jim Beam in his stomach, the sentiment was different. By pocketing the $291,400 winner’s share, Adam, a man who has spent millions of dollars at the yearling auctions, assured Adriano a place in the Derby starting gate.

Alas, the Texas banker and real estate tycoon said, “This is a very proud moment. We’ve been in the business a long time, and we haven’t had major success.” Given this situation, he is certain to prevail upon Motion to reconsider the colt’s Derby potential.

I guess it will be up to the owner.Motion is not that hyprd on the horse.Also a bad trip in the Derby could cause all kinds of future problems for the horse.Alot of money can come their way without the DERBY.w2w

Update... doesn't look too good... but a strong showing in the Lexington would make it hard for them to hold him out...

Derby attempt unlikely, Adriano connections say
By MARTY McGEE
FLORENCE, Ky. - Adriano would be a cinch to make the field for the 134th Kentucky Derby after raking in $285,000 in graded earnings by capturing the Grade 2 Lane's End Stakes, but while trainer Graham Motion is leaving open the possibility of pointing in that direction, he called the Derby "unlikely" for the A.P. Indy colt.

Adriano, bred and owned by the Courtlandt Farms of Donald Adam, was a 2 1/2-length winner Saturday at Turfway Park in the lone major Derby prep of the weekend. The colt was scheduled to return by air to the Palm Meadows training center in south Florida on Tuesday, said Motion. The April 19 Coolmore Lexington Stakes on the Keeneland Polytrack is the likely next start, he added.

As for the Derby, "We've still got to talk about it some more," Motion said Monday from Florida. "I wanted to get the horse back here to train while I'm in Dubai. I'll see how he's doing when I get back and assess it further. The Derby? It's unlikely at this point, but like I said before the race, never say never. Let's get him back here and see how he's doing."

While Adriano has raced primarily on turf, he now has a win and a fourth in two Polytrack tries. His lone dirt try, a ninth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes four weeks before the Lane's End, is somewhat difficult to gauge, said Motion.

"So much of why he ran well Saturday was because of his behavior," said Motion. "He's a horse that can get very shook up, but he was great before this race. He was pretty shook up before the Fountain of Youth, so it's a little hard to read into how much his poor performance was due to his behavior and how much to the track. Obviously, a day like Derby Day wouldn't be easy for him."

The respective 2-3-4 finishers in the Lane's End - Halo Najib, Medjool, and Racecar Rhapsody - all are possibilities to run back against Adriano in the 1 1/16-mile Lexington, according to their connections.

Meanwhile, purely from a Turfway Park perspective, the victory by Adriano was not ideal, if only because the track would prefer to have the winner of its showcase race move forward to the Derby. Turfway president Bob Elliston acknowledged last week that the nature of Polytrack is such that a turf horse might one day win the Lane's End and bypass the Derby. That possibility clearly exists this year.

Making it to the Derby and winning the Derby are two VERY different things, although it's ceratinly the right place to start. Suffice to say Adriano is not among the upper echelon of contenders right now.

My top three Derby prospects at this moment (in order of preference) are Pyro, Georgie Boy, and Yankee Bravo. I'm also very interested to to see what Big Brown does in the Florida Derby this weekend. He probably doesn't have enough foundation to win the Kentucky Derby (and he also reportedly has bad feet), but he doesn't look short on talent.

Point well taken DC.

I just thought that if he was going to run in it, 45-1 is a fair price, but without knowing if they will even try for it, I will have to pass.

Since the talk got a little technial tonight, I'll talk about this here first. First off, Ed, I think if Adriano makes it to the derby, you may be getting about that price anyway. I wouldn't risk it.

Since DC brought up Georgie Boy here as a top contender (he is one of mine as well), thought I talk about a major concern I have w/ the horse. There is a reason Georgie Boy looks like a big clod when he's charging down the lane. He refuses to switch off his left lead. He has a very, very quick turn of foot and quick stride and the reason he shows so much acceleration in the stretch. I watched him do this winning the Del Mar Futurity, and he did it again winning his last. He's done it in almost all of his races. The problem I have with it is, not sure how well that style is going to adapt to dirt. Horses on that Del Mar track, and the track many times this SA meet after the polymers were incorportate, not only didn't pay a penalty for not switching leads, but horses hanging on their left leads actually had an advantage over the track. This is one thing I've noticed about the syn surfaces. I'm sure Georgie Boy is headed toward the SA derby, but I'd like to see at least one routing dirt race before throwing my support behind him in the Derby. There's a very good chance that if he doesn't switch in the lane on dirt, lot of lugging in going to be taking place. I know there's hall of fame trainers who think a horse switching leads is completely over blown, but at a 1 1/4, gotta think it's pretty important.

Gotta think Georgie Boy will be forced to change leads at the Derby distance. For those who aren't aware, changing leads (the front leg they lead with while running) is something horses do naturally in order to relieve pressure. Compare it to a human walking home from the store, with a big bag of groceries in one arm. After a while, your arm would start to get tired, and you'd switch to the other arm. You would probably repeat that process, depending on how far you were walking. Same deal with a horse. Some animals (for whatever reason) have trouble doing that, however. Perhaps they're just stubborn, or set in their ways, and don't like to do it. Going 1 1/4 miles however, i don't see any way around it. It's quite possible the reason Georgie Boy stayed on his left lead diuring the stretch run of the San Felipe was because he wasn't very tired. That may even be backed up by the lightning-fast finishing fraction. If that's the case, it probably bodes well for his chances in the Derby. This is all just speculation, of course. One thing i do believe Georgie Boy proved in the San Felipe is that he can overcome adversity, and he's not shy about throwing his weight around either. That figures to help him in a race like the Derby, with it's gigantic 20-horse field.

Agree with that. The way he bulls through the opening in the lane is very impressive, and something that is important on Dby day.

I dont want to get off topic but to start just wanted to say a little about Georgie Boy, I think the San Felipe is one of the weakes Preps leading up to the derby, I like S. California racing, but it seems these horses only run well in Cali, I believe they are pointing him into the Santa Anita derby which would be OK but in this day an age I think it is advantage to run on a dirt track and be closer to Kentucky with the derby approaching, He looked well but I really questioned that race and question is ability to ship across the country!

Back to the horse in question, Adriano, most trainers know the toughness of winning the derby and most would suggest easier spots then the derby if they didnt feel they had a legit shot at the top 5, and this horse did look solid and had a nice stretch run, and I would say a much shorter price then 45-1 if he did run the derby with that running style, but I feel the trainer knows the horse is conisder 2nd tier (1st tier beeing legit contenders, War pass, Pryo and a couple others) and I would think the owners will be talking in his ear, and at the end of the day they are the ones who pay the bills, and I do think you will see this horse in the derby!

Kathy Walsh is also considering the Arkansas Derby for Georgie Boy, though the SA Derby seems more likely. Regarding his prospects of shipping well, i would think his success over the very-deep Del Mar polytrack is a good indication he can handle a non-California surface. Incidentally, Yankee Bravo had never run on dirt before, and he did just fine in the Louisiana Derby.

And how quickly we forget. Street Sense went from syn surface to Derby victory.