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Old 08-18-2011, 12:00 PM   #1
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Default 8/18-- WO-SAR--Live Play
WO R3:

#1, Cabriole: Contreras stays up, she's cutting back and should get a nice stalking trip. Chalk but I can't go against her.

# 3, Group Hug: like her last race routing.

#4, Susanbandoozan: has beaten and lost to the 1 going 7F. Have to use her but I'm not sold on her today.

#8, La Belle Bear: just broke her maiden and figures to either set or contest the pace. Have to use her.

These are all demonstrated 7F horses. Have tossed the others.

Exotics: 1 OVER 3,4,8
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Old 08-18-2011, 12:05 PM   #2
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SAR R5:

#2, System Ready: coming out of race that a few others in today's race also ran in last out. The race fell apart and this one held the best of all the pacesetters. Similar run today gets it done
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Old 08-18-2011, 12:12 PM   #3
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They scratched the 6, which had ZERO shot, late and cut our prices a bit. Also, should've gone with my gut and completely tossed the 4 in the under spots, using just a two number exacta and tri. I thought the 3 was 2nd best and she ran that way. Not a great return but good enough:

Woodbine T-bred - Race 3
# Win Place Show
1 $5.00 $3.00 $2.10
3 . $4.30 $2.70
8 . . $2.10

$2.00 Exacta 1-3 $23.90
$2.00 Trifecta 1-3-8 $54.80
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Old 08-18-2011, 12:24 PM   #4
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They went ARABIANS' pace and the 2 still couldn't get it done. Sciacca wins it with a stretchout horse. Where's the Pletcher SPA JUICE when you need it?
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Old 08-18-2011, 12:38 PM   #5
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WO R4:
chance to make some money as I don't like the favorite.
#Savethethought, currently 6:5, comes out of a race that completely fell apart going 9F. She cuts back 1/16th and needs a COMPLETE PACE COLLAPSE -- even worse than last time -- to get it done. I'd LAY this one if I had betfair.

#4, Sava River: tried a middle move in that 9F race and a similar run puts her right there. Nice odds. WIN BET

#3 and #8, both closed going 7F -- could get a piece.

#7, Will she Crow: tricky BOMB.

use these with the 4 in exotics
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Old 08-18-2011, 12:47 PM   #6
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#3 wins it easily and does it from ON the pace -- go figure

#9, coming out of the same race as the winner (held the best of the pace horses) runs 2nd @ 7:1

#4, runs 3rd @ 24:5 --- funny ride by Moore on this one --- didn't ask her till the race was basically over

#7, gets fourth @ 60:1

all these came out of the same race last out.
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Old 08-18-2011, 01:07 PM   #7
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WO R5:
TERRIBLE BUNCH.

#5, Northern Store, is something like 0 for 25, with a handful of BAD RIDES -- including last out. Hard to take short odds on this one, even the trainer is not exactly confident, BUT, if Husbands gives him a well timed ride -- CORRECTION-- if Husbands doesn't give him one of his patented RETARDED RIDES-- this one figures to be right there.

#2, Wookinwicked: another one that's had multiple chances and a number of bad rides. But his two best races are at today's distance and Contreras stays up. He ain't much but the others are probably worse.

#3, Draw a Line: some improved races -- best of the rest.

Exacta and tri: 5 / 2,3
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Old 08-18-2011, 01:09 PM   #8
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EDIT:

#2, is the chalk with 2 minutes to post: Contreras money or Attard sending it in?

switch to exacta: 5/2, 3; 2,5
no tri
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Old 08-18-2011, 01:19 PM   #9
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See, when you try to handicap TWO CARDS on the fly, with no advance preparation, on FOUR hours sleep, FUCKUPS are bound to happen. I mean, they ran EXACTLY like I originally thought. Supposed to have the exacta and TRI with only TWO pops each; instead of playing like a PUSSY and worrying about what the public is doing (ironically, the exact opposite of what transpired last race). Made money but should've made MORE.

Woodbine T-bred - Race 5
# Win Place Show
5 $7.00 $3.40 $2.80
2 . $4.40 $3.30
3 . . $4.90

$2.00 Exacta 5-2 $20.70
$2.00 Trifecta 5-2-3 $82.90
$2.00 Exacta 5-2 $20.70
$2.00 Trifecta 5-2-3 $82.90
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Old 08-18-2011, 01:22 PM   #10
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Why off the turf for R7 @ SAR?
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Old 08-18-2011, 01:56 PM   #11
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SAR R8:

#5, Tahoe Warrior: should be able to work out a good trip here. Will bet to win if > 3:1.
#6, Sumfun: sneaky. WIll bet him to win if > 10:1

Not crazy about #8, Free Brave, the chalk. He can certainly get a piece and I'll use him in exotics; but I'll try to beat him.
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Old 08-18-2011, 02:02 PM   #12
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I don't know what Dominguez was thinking: he's supposed to let the 7 duel with the 3 and sit a trip.

As it was, I bet the 3 last out and he spit it out in race where the top 4 were there around the track.

But he's probably coming down anyway.
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Old 08-18-2011, 02:12 PM   #13
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WO R7: full field and a tough race. going to keep it simple

no idea why #5, Nafta, is 9:1 with 3 min to post. Hasn't run since late June but he's demonstrated that he can handle this class over this distance.
win
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Old 08-18-2011, 02:17 PM   #14
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I got LAST YEARS patented Luis Contreras ride. But the horse was just dull.
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Old 08-18-2011, 02:30 PM   #15
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Almost done:

SAR R9:
letting Icabad Crane beat me.
#8, Pocket Cowboys: some nice races and Prado OFF, Castellano UP. Should be able to work out a good trip.
#2, Gimme Credit: something is pulling me towards using this horse. Doesn't appear to be able to handle these off recent form but his last race was an improvement. I'll make a win bet on him if > 20:1.

R 10:

#4, SIngmeasong: supposed to get a stalking trip today and win if the 9 quits.
#9, Simsational: one more chance on the front end.

DOUBLE: 8 / 4, 9
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Old 08-18-2011, 02:41 PM   #16
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BAD LUCK

8 blows the break then has the widest trip in ARABIAN fractions. ran late for 3rd

it happens
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Old 08-18-2011, 02:44 PM   #17
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WO R8:

#10, Park Place: Contreras skunked him two back; then Husbands screwed him up last time. Stretching to 8F, supposed to beat this field.

exotics: 10 over 4,5,6,9
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Old 08-18-2011, 02:52 PM   #18
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10 gets nosed out by a 45:1 shot, that came again to get him, with the 9 3rd.
ha ha ha

time for some fast food
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