For a large horse like Quality Road who has already carried 122 lbs. going 1 1/8th the extra 4 pounds will be no big deal. But for many smaller closing type horses it will be a very big deal.

For example take Papa Clem and Regal Ransom neither horse has ever won a race carrying more than 120lbs. In the Derby they will be saddled with 126lbs and go further than ever before... do you think they really have a chance at all ?

Advice looked pretty good with a light 117 on his back... how will he look with 9 more pounds?

Desert Party is a miler and looked tired going 1 1/8th at 120 lbs how will he look with 6 more pounds?

Summer Bird adds 7 pounds ? Good luck with that .....

Take a xanax or get some paxil willya. The race is in 10 days and we know who u like already

Originally Posted by jtc1984

Take a xanax or get some paxil willya. The race is in 10 days and we know who u like already

:Look I am trying to give you some angles to look at and weight is often overlooked. I have hit the Derby winner 4 out of the last 5 years for a reason.

I know you know I like Quality Road but I am offering you some reasons to pass on others. Take the advice or don't. Its just conversation.

and how much money did you happen to make on afleet alex in the derby. I happen to hit $1026 on my pick that day.

Originally Posted by hue21998

and how much money did you happen to make on afleet alex in the derby. I happen to hit $1026 on my pick that day.

I lost quite a bit on that race because I was up quite a bit when the race came around so I bought more win tickets on Afleet because I was sure he was going to whip that weak field. I lost on all my win and place tickets and all my tri and exacta the only ticket I cashed was a 50 buck Show ticket I bought for my daughter.

well tha happened to be one of my better days. some time ago i put up that stupid 10 step derby pick process that i put a lil extra on the top 4 horses in a win bet. and it happened that year that giacomo was 5th on the list,
by a neck and closing. so he got some money on him too.

remember, you do at least have that purple vikings hat if QR wins.

126 is not that much since most ran with 122 allready

Originally Posted by hue21998

remember, you do at least have that purple vikings hat if QR wins.

Get ready to buy that hat .... QR wins for fun against this group.

thats the only way hes gonna win is for fun, when the real race comes ill send ya some tissues

Originally Posted by Draynay

:Look I am trying to give you some angles to look at and weight is often overlooked. I have hit the Derby winner 4 out of the last 5 years for a reason.

I know you know I like Quality Road but I am offering you some reasons to pass on others. Take the advice or don't. Its just conversation.

Keep in mind there were also a million others with the same feat. You do realize your 4 winners were all post-time favorites. Don't act like you have some serious revelation and hit these impossible to cap races. Someone who bets the favorite every single derby did the same thing you did.

Big Brown, Street Sense, Barbaro, and Smarty Jones were all favorites.
The one year a price came you lost your ass.

I'm not taking anything away from you as I'm a firm believer that it's better to have a $3 winner than a $60 4th place finisher, money over pride. Just don't pretend like you could write a book on picking derby winners.

Originally Posted by hue21998

and how much money did you happen to make on afleet alex in the derby. I happen to hit $1026 on my pick that day.

I stood to win over $5000 on Afleet Alex that year (Derby future @ 18/1 taken AFTER his Arkansas Derby win), and he looked like a winner in deep stretch. Brutal beat there; he was definitely the right horse. They showed an isolated overhead shot of him after the race, and Jeremy Rose was spending all of his time weaving through traffic. With a clear, unobstructed path, Afleet Alex would've won. No question. He also confirmed his clear superiority over that group in the Preakness and Belmont.

If you're gonna get on Draynay for something, don't make it Afleet Alex. On the flip side however, Afleet Alex makes the PERFECT example of how the best horse doesn't always win the Derby. Draynay should keep that in mind when he says things like "Quality Road is a lock; everyone eldse is running for second."

Even if we knew for a fact that Quality Road is the best horse (and we don't), that doesn't mean he's gonna win. For goodness sake, where did Holy Bull finish? Eighteenth? That pretty much tells you all you need to know about the Derby. It's kind of a crapshoot, to put it mildly.

Sweetnorthernsaint was the favorite.... but I get your point. You know every year I hear that its no big deal picking Smarty or Barbaro... and let me tell you EVERYONE told me Curlin was a lock and I begged everyone at my table to bet Street Sense and I was laughed at.

Every year I hear people boast about horses that really have no chance at all .... Summer Bird ??? Please that is not handicapping that is throwing darts.

Go ahead and do a poll and check out how many on this forum are picking Quality Road.... when he wins those who did not pick him will say.... well everyone had him. Not true....not you I often say.

Regarding weight, i refuse to believe than an extra 5 pounds (or whatever) will maker any discernable difference on the back of a 1200-pound animal. Many people disagree with me (including some who i respect a great deal), but i'll never be convinced otherwise.

I know what you mean but when a race is 1 1/4 every pound means something. Watch where Summerbird or Advice finishes and you will get my point. They pick up 7 and 9 pounds and I PROMISE they are going to feel every pound of it.

Originally Posted by DiscreetCat

Regarding weight, i refuse to believe than an extra 5 pounds (or whatever) will maker any discernable difference on the back of a 1200-pound animal. Many people disagree with me (including some who i respect a great deal), but i'll never be convinced otherwise.

Every horse is created different, and some can carry weight better than others.
Not believing it matters is the equivalent of not believing physics.

In a perfect lab setting with all variables being equal, we'll race 2 1200lb robots around a track.
Yours can carry 126 lbs, mine will carry 122 lbs. Let's wager, I'll spot you 9 races in a race to 10.

Another side bet offer seeing you refused to even acknowledge the other side bet i put out on 4 occasions for you and flyin late talked about possibly someone else holding the money which would be an awesome way to do it. but your big mouth still seemed to keep rolling. The offer on that side bet is still there so its time to put up or shut up and so far the other 4 times youve shut up. picking the favorite or one of top 2 horses is all you have ever done and still do today as you show that with every single post you have made in this forum. throwing darts hahaha sorry dear im smart enough to not be married to one horse like you seem to be and sometimes that is exactly what seperates someone like me who does make a few coins on racing to someone like you who is the perfect example of the general public. Stay married to your horse year after year, ill keep pocketing some money. and as i said now for the 5th time if you really have something to say, the side bet is still there. its time to put up or shut up

Cat............i Agree With You Whole Heartedly Its Definitely A Crap Shoot 20 Horses On This Special First Saturday In May Are Attempting To Do Things They Have Never Done Or Been Asked To In There Careers..
1. Carry 126lbs.over A Mile And A Quarter
2.face 19 Others In A Race
3.deal With A Crowd Of 100,000 Screaming People
4face Squeezes And Traffic Like Most Have Never Dealt With
5.jockeys With Butterflys In There First Derby Mounts.
6.jeff Mullins In Your Barn With A Syringe {priceless}
I Cant Get Carried Away With It Like Most Of The Die Hards On Here Seem To..