PDA

View Full Version : Aqueduct Wednesday


Farina
12-05-2011, 03:58 PM
Race 1- Assuming that 4/5 morning line Full of Gut has more holes than a block of swiss cheese, 5) Pretty Cozzy should be in a pretty cozy spot. Throw out the 2 races in the mud, she matches up well against these and barn is having an explosive burst of energy since the move to Aqueduct.

Race 2- 1) Mannington takes meaningful drop and if allowed to run, is the only true speed in the race. That and Rudy are enough for me.

Race 3- Race is impossible and shippers coming off the adjunct lasix in Maryland add to the puzzle.

Race 4- I won't even bother with this one either.

Race 5- When I first saw the morning line on the 5) Dance With Monarch, I chuckled, then I got a look at the rest of the field. Next.

Race 6- 9) Slew's Big Finale drops off the Galluscio claim but they probably figure they're safe with only a couple of grass races left.
It bothers me that 4) Good Prospect missed the whole Belmont meet and now shows up at the bottom. A pure guess but would think this one is in one piece with Ramon taking the mount.

Race 7- 1A) Rum Till I Die clearly detested the mud in debut and I love Maylan Studart. One shot at these on a dry track.
5) Sunny Desert is clearly the one to beat for we may get to know very quickly.

Race 8- Using 2 here. One a price and one not.
1) Double Mint stretches out and moves way up after graduating for a low price in the goo.
Galluscio put one over at 91-1 on the main track and this one has better credentials.
7) Lenders Way goes out for trainer who gets hot once or twice a year. Looks best on paper and is the one to beat.

Race 9- My best bet of the day is here. 3) Artie Luvsto Party gained conditioning on deep and tiring turf course off two month break. Barn doing better now and Artie just may be the speed here and if not, will be very close throughout.
Betting him across the board and some exactas for juice.
Good luck all.

Farina
12-06-2011, 02:16 AM
Just going to go through this field one by one.
1) Brunelli has had several chances at this condition and wasn't even able to break maiden in a special weight race. Lacks speed and quality.
2) Lunar Victory is off a long layoff and making first start on dirt. A pure guess and I'm guessing no.
3) Artie Luvsto Party was competing when this barn was in the depths of their worst slump in years but has rejuvenated since the move back to Aqueduct. Last in a turf swamp should have provided the needed conditioning and I'm expecting a big move into the far turn and him drawing off from there.
4) Greeley's Law took 15 starts to break his maiden and that was the field from hell.
5) Sound Of Drums is a clunk along type and despite appearing on paper to fit here, he really doesn't.
6) Rocky World is a plodding log who may pick up a few pieces late but nothing more for yet another low profile outfit that races their horses over their heads and by the time they figure that out, their horses are so raced out they can't even win with the class drop.
7) Crescent's Mon adds more cheap speed to the mix and is getting a negative barn change to boot.
8) Uncle Smokey was actually okay in last and kept up to a brisk pace while racing wide.
May the real Uncle Smokey please stand up.
9) Ambassador Bridge is in yet another barn that has heated up for the first time in awhile. A use in exactas, just not on top.
10) Doublespeak is a maiden on dirt in yet another barn that loves to race their horses in the wrong spots.

I really think the move is to bet Artie across the board and key him in the late pick 4 using everything in the 6th 7th and 8th that goes forward. Will decide after scratches.

John Greenhaw
12-06-2011, 09:48 AM
A few observations:

In the 3rd, #4 Well Kept will be a single on alot of cards.

In the 7th, #5 Sunny Desert, at 5-1, is a player in here, but don't overlook #9 Sally's Dream, 6-1. I hate the outside post, but she is quick enough to clear most of these from the beginning and move in. I know the connections believe she is better than she has shown, she is working great, and owner Gessler thinks putting her in for $35k is a joke! This will be my biggest play on the card!
gl

Polamalu43
12-06-2011, 02:13 PM
John-I'm with you on the #4, Well Kept, in the 3rd race. A single to me in the early P4...

Farina
12-07-2011, 08:53 AM
Had to re do the card due to the slop.
Making these plays
Race 1 WPS 5
P3 5/all/1,2,4

Race 2 Pick 4 ALL/1,2,4/ALL/5

Race 6- Pick 4 9,13,14/3,4,6,8,9/1,5,7/3,5,9

Farina
12-07-2011, 09:48 AM
The more I look at this race, Awesome Arceno looks like the lone true speed here.
Giddyup at 7-1

jenroypa
12-07-2011, 01:20 PM
Had to re do the card due to the slop.
Making these plays
Race 1 WPS 5
P3 5/all/1,2,4

Race 2 Pick 4 ALL/1,2,4/ALL/5

Race 6- Pick 4 9,13,14/3,4,6,8,9/1,5,7/3,5,9


Thanks..Nice call on the 3 in the 9th.. Congrats on the late pick 4.. had to pay over 3k for .50 cents.