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View Full Version : Andys Pee, umm Speed Figures


Horsin~Aro
02-13-2011, 06:12 PM
Again, we gotta love em.

Is Brethren five lengths slower than Silver Medallion?
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2011 12:23 PM EST in Stakes Results

The Beyer figures are out for yesterday's three-year-old stakes races (Sam F. Davis, Robert Lewis, and El Camino Real Derby) and, for some of us, they conflict greatly with what took place from a visual perspective. Below are the figures assigned for each winner (via DRF.com):

Silver Medallion - 93 (El Camino Real Derby)
Anthony's Cross - 90 (Robert B. Lewis Stakes)
Brethren - 83 (Sam F. Davis Stakes)

According to those speed figures, (and utilizing the beaten lengths chart in Andrew Beyer's Picking Winners) Brethren was five to six lengths slower than Silver Medallion, and about four to five lengths slower than Anthony's Cross.

One issue with the Tampa number (and it's an issue that seems to come up a lot), is the fact that Tampa only ran one race at two-turns yesterday. Based on things I've read in the past, the figure makers rarely use a split variant for one-turn and two-turn, although they will utilize split variants (see the big stakes days at last year's Saratgoa meet). Furthermore, it appears that a split variant was used yesterday but how they decided what number to use for the Davis when there was only one race greater than a mile on the card is difficult to ascertain. It's tough to get a read on the speed or slowness of a track when all the main track races are run at the same distance.

Below is a snap shot of yesterday's main track races at Tampa, and their corresponding BSF from the Formulator interactive charts:

Race
Dist.
Class
1/4
1/2
Final
BSF

1
6.0
5k Clm
22.43
45.60
1:10.95
70

2
7.0
10k Clm
22.87
46.32
1:25.99
52

3
7.0
25k MdClm
23.33
46.63
1:26.26
49

4
6.0
12.5k Clm
22.59
45.98
1:12.06
60

5
6.0
MSW
22.56
45.94
1:11.69
65

6
6.5
Hcp
22.65
45.85
1:17.25
78

8
7.0
Alw/OC 16k
23.51
47.24
1:24.89
65

10
8.5
G3 Sam F. Davis
23.75
48.20
1:45.07
83

FlyinLate
02-13-2011, 07:59 PM
I honestly completely disregard Beyer figures these days, especially on 3yo derby preps.
Funny part is, it is normally Cali horses who get shafted on their figures, and it seems to have reversed here. The El Camino was not an impressive race at all to me, let alone to earn the top beyer. Comma To The Top cant handle the distance and the rest looked to be laboring home.

DiscreetCat
02-14-2011, 05:02 AM
Just one question:

If Pletcher had entered Uncle Mo instead of Brethren, and Uncle Mo had run an identical race to the one that Brethren ran, would Uncle Mo have been given an 83 Beyer?

fbwinners
02-14-2011, 09:19 AM
Just one question:

If Pletcher had entered Uncle Mo instead of Brethren, and Uncle Mo had run an identical race to the one that Brethren ran, would Uncle Mo have been given an 83 Beyer?

No Way he would of gotten a 98